Men's college basketball picks today: Thursday's best bets include Texas State vs. South Alabama play [2/19/2026]

Texas State +4.5 (-102)

• Edge: 8.0%
• Probability: 58.4%
• Matchup: Texas State vs. South Alabama (8:00PM ET, Thursday)

Our model has identified value on Texas State +4.5 at -102 odds. A 58.4% probability produces an edge of 8.0%, making this the strongest play for today's men's college basketball slate.

New Hampshire +4.5 (-105)

• Edge: 7.2%
• Probability: 58.4%
• Matchup: New Hampshire vs. Massachusetts-Lowell (6:00PM ET, Thursday)

New Hampshire +4.5 carries a 7.2% edge and a probability of 58.4% at -105 odds, according to our model.

William & Mary vs. Campbell over 168.5 points (-110)

• Edge: 5.0%
• Probability: 57.4%
• Matchup: William & Mary vs. Campbell (7:00PM ET, Thursday)

William & Mary vs. Campbell over 168.5 points at -110 odds shows a 5.0% edge, supported by a 57.4% probability in simulations.

SIU-Edwardsville vs. Tennessee Tech over 134.5 points (-105)

• Edge: 4.7%
• Probability: 55.9%
• Matchup: SIU-Edwardsville vs. Tennessee Tech (8:30PM ET, Thursday)

A 4.7% edge and 55.9% probability make SIU-Edwardsville vs. Tennessee Tech over 134.5 points at a value play in the SIU-Edwardsville vs. Tennessee Tech matchup, per our model.

New Hampshire ML (+188)

• Edge: 4.6%
• Probability: 39.3%
• Matchup: New Hampshire vs. Massachusetts-Lowell (6:00PM ET, Thursday)

New Hampshire ML at +188 odds presents a 4.6% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 39.3%.

Cal State Northridge +3.5 (-105)

• Edge: 4.6%
• Probability: 55.8%
• Matchup: Cal State Northridge vs. UC Santa Barbara (9:00PM ET, Thursday)

Our model finds value on Cal State Northridge +3.5 at -105 odds, supported by an edge of 4.6%.

Idaho State +1.5 (-105)

• Edge: 4.5%
• Probability: 55.8%
• Matchup: Montana vs. Idaho State (9:00PM ET, Thursday)

Our model has uncovered value on Idaho State +1.5 at -105 odds. A 55.8% probability produces a 4.5% edge, making this a strong play for today's men's college basketball action.

Fairleigh Dickinson -2.5 (-105)

• Edge: 4.4%
• Probability: 55.6%
• Matchup: Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Chicago State (7:00PM ET, Thursday)

A 4.4% edge on a 55.6% probability makes Fairleigh Dickinson -2.5 at -105 odds a solid value play in today's Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Chicago State matchup.

Tennessee-Martin -2.5 (-105)

• Edge: 4.4%
• Probability: 55.6%
• Matchup: Tennessee-Martin vs. Arkansas-Little Rock (8:00PM ET, Thursday)

Our model projects value on Tennessee-Martin -2.5 at -105 odds. A 55.6% probability produces a 4.4% edge, making Tennessee-Martin the favorable side in Saturday’s matchup.

Central Arkansas -8.5 (-106)

• Edge: 4.2%
• Probability: 55.6%
• Matchup: Montana vs. Idaho State (8:00PM ET, Thursday)

Rounding out our top 10 bets, Central Arkansas -8.5 at -106 odds shows a 55.6% probability and a 4.2% edge.

NCAAM best bets summary: Thursday, 2/19/2026

As of 12:33PM ET, here are our top men's college basketball bets by edge recommended by our model:

Matchup	Bet	Odds	Edge	Probability
Texas State vs. South Alabama	Texas State +4.5	-102 @ BetMGM	8.0%	58.4%
New Hampshire vs. Massachusetts-Lowell	New Hampshire +4.5	-105 @ BetMGM	7.2%	58.4%
William & Mary vs. Campbell	Over 168.5 Points	-110 @ BetMGM	5.0%	57.4%
SIU-Edwardsville vs. Tennessee Tech	Over 134.5 Points	-105 @ BetMGM	4.7%	55.9%
New Hampshire vs. Massachusetts-Lowell	New Hampshire ML	+188 @ FanDuel	4.6%	39.3%
Cal State Northridge vs. UC Santa Barbara	Cal State Northridge +3.5	-105 @ BetMGM	4.6%	55.8%
Montana vs. Idaho State	Idaho State +1.5	-105 @ BetMGM	4.5%	55.8%
Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Chicago State	Fairleigh Dickinson -2.5	-105 @ DraftKings	4.4%	55.6%
Tennessee-Martin vs. Arkansas-Little Rock	Tennessee-Martin -2.5	-105 @ BetMGM	4.4%	55.6%
Central Arkansas vs. Stetson	Central Arkansas -8.5	-106 @ FanDuel	4.2%	55.6%

List of upcoming men's college basketball games to bet on now

• Florida International vs. Liberty (6:00PM ET, Thursday)
• Vermont vs. UMBC (6:00PM ET, Thursday)
• New Hampshire vs. Massachusetts-Lowell (6:00PM ET, Thursday)
• Binghamton vs. Bryant University (6:00PM ET, Thursday)
• Marshall vs. Appalachian State (6:30PM ET, Thursday)
• USC Upstate vs. Winthrop (6:30PM ET, Thursday)
• Charleston vs. North Carolina A&T (7:00PM ET, Thursday)
• Memphis vs. South Florida (7:00PM ET, Thursday)
• Monmouth vs. North Carolina-Wilmington (7:00PM ET, Thursday)
• Drexel vs. Northeastern (7:00PM ET, Thursday)

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Conclusion

Our men's college basketball best bets are locked and loaded for February 19, 2026, featuring plays such as Texas State +4.5 and New Hampshire +4.5. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

This article, enhanced by AI and automation, aims to deliver accurate college basketball insights quickly, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are grounded in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.

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