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Dolphins vs. Steelers prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win ‘MNF’ Week 15 [2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers predictions for NFL Monday.
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Miami Dolphins will meet in Week 15 of the NFL season at Acrisure Stadium on Monday, with kickoff at 8:15PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NFL model projects the Steelers as the most likely winner of the Dolphins vs. Steelers game.
This article offers further insights into this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Dolphins vs. Steelers prediction: Who will win ‘Monday Night Football’?
Since our Dolphins-Steelers predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Monday's NFL game between the Dolphins and Steelers 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Steelers a 59% chance of beating the Dolphins in Week 15 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Steelers winning 22-20.
According to our model, the Dolphins (+3.5) have a 63% chance of covering the spread, while the 42.5-point over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 15 straight up picks.
Dolphins vs. Steelers odds
We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Dolphins | Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +3.5 (-125) | -3.5 (-102) |
| Moneyline | +154 | -175 |
| Total | o42.5 (-110) | u42.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Dolphins vs. Steelers picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dolphins +3.5 | -125 |
| Moneyline | Dolphins | +154 |
| Total | Under 42.5 | -108 |
According to our best NFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Dolphins +3.5 at the spread.
Dolphins vs. Steelers TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Dolphins vs. Steelers?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, De'Von Achane is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Dolphins vs. Steelers.
Our projections give Achane a 49.9% chance of getting in for six at Acrisure Stadium, while the running back is a 13.2% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Miami Dolphins
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| De'Von Achane (RB) | 49.9% |
| Jaylen Waddle (WR) | 32.7% |
| Darren Waller (TE) | 24.4% |
| Malik Washington (WR) | 17.5% |
| Ollie Gordon (RB) | 14.7% |
Pittsburgh Steelers
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren (RB) | 40.1% |
| Kenneth Gainwell (RB) | 36.7% |
| DK Metcalf (WR) | 36.3% |
| Pat Freiermuth (TE) | 17.0% |
| Darnell Washington (TE) | 16.1% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Miami Dolphins
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| De'Von Achane (RB) | 13.2% |
| Jaylen Waddle (WR) | 7.6% |
| Darren Waller (TE) | 5.4% |
| Malik Washington (WR) | 3.7% |
| Ollie Gordon (RB) | 3.0% |
Pittsburgh Steelers
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren (RB) | 10.2% |
| Kenneth Gainwell (RB) | 9.1% |
| DK Metcalf (WR) | 9.0% |
| Pat Freiermuth (TE) | 3.7% |
| Darnell Washington (TE) | 3.5% |
Dolphins vs Steelers player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Dolphins and Steelers. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 15 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa is projected for 200 passing yards, while the Steelers' Aaron Rodgers is expected to throw for 218 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) | 200 |
| Aaron Rodgers (PIT) | 218 |
Dolphins rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 81 |
| Jaylen Wright | 22 |
| Ollie Gordon | 10 |
Steelers rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 52 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 29 |
| Kaleb Johnson | 6 |
Dolphins receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 67 |
| Malik Washington | 30 |
| Darren Waller | 30 |
| De'Von Achane | 29 |
| Greg Dulcich | 20 |
Steelers receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 61 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 26 |
| Darnell Washington | 26 |
| Calvin Austin | 21 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 20 |
Dolphins vs. Steelers game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 15 matchup between the Steelers and Dolphins at Acrisure Stadium is scheduled to begin at 8:15PM ET.
- Who: Miami Dolphins vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Date: Monday, December 15, 2025
- Time: 8:15PM ET/5:15PM PT
- Venue: Acrisure Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Steelers, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat the Dolphins in Week 15 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Dolphins vs. Steelers insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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