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Heat vs. Mavericks prediction: Miami favored to win Wednesday's NBA matchup [12/3/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks predictions for NBA Wednesday.
The Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat are scheduled to meet in NBA action at American Airlines Center on Wednesday, with tipoff at 8:30PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results and today’s injury updates, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Heat as the most likely winner of the Heat vs. Mavericks game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Mavericks lineup will feature stars like Anthony Davis, Cooper Flagg and Ryan Nembhard, while the Heat will rely on Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo and Andrew Wiggins.
This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Heat vs. Mavs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's NBA game between the Heat and Mavericks 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Heat a 66% chance of beating the Mavericks. Our predicted final score has the Heat winning 120-116.
According to our model, the Heat (-4.5) have a 51% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 237.5 points has a 52% chance of staying under.
Heat vs. Mavericks odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Heat | Mavericks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -4.5 (-110) | +4.5 (-108) |
| Moneyline | -185 | +158 |
| Total | o237.5 (-114) | u237.5 (-106) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Heat vs. Mavericks picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Heat -4.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Heat | -185 |
| Total | Under 237.5 | -106 |
According to our best NBA bets for Wednesday, the top play to make on this game is Heat to win.
Heat vs. Mavericks player props
NBA player props are an exciting way to wager on the Heat vs. Mavericks game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at American Airlines Center.
Tyler Herro is expected to lead the Heat with 22 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists, while Anthony Davis is projected to have 23 points, 11 rebounds and 3 assists for the Mavericks.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and more, for every game this season.
Heat prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Heat are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro | 22 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 40 |
| Bam Adebayo | 20 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 43 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 18 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 35 |
| Jaime Jaquez | 16 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 35 |
| Davion Mitchell | 11 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 31 |
Mavericks prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mavericks:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Davis | 23 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 49 |
| Cooper Flagg | 18 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 37 |
| Ryan Nembhard | 16 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 34 |
| Naji Marshall | 13 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 29 |
| B. Williams | 12 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 27 |
Heat vs. Mavs game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's action between the Mavericks and Heat at American Airlines Center is scheduled to start at 8:30PM ET.
- Who: Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks
- Date: Wednesday, December 3, 2025
- Time: 8:30PM ET/5:30PM PT
- Venue: American Airlines Center
Conclusion
We predict the Heat, with a 66% win probability, will likely beat the Mavericks on Wednesday, with Anthony Davis projected for a game-high 49 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Heat vs. Mavericks insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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