Get New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs predictions for NBA Playoffs Wednesday.
New York Knicks vs. San Antonio Spurs NBA prediction for Game 1 of the Finals series.
The San Antonio Spurs will face the New York Knicks in Game 226 of the 2026 NBA Finals at Frost Bank Center on Wednesday, starting at 8:30 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results and today’s injury updates, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Spurs as the most likely winner of the Knicks vs. Spurs Game 1 matchup.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Spurs lineup will feature players like Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle and De'Aaron Fox, while the Knicks will rely on Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby and Karl-Anthony Towns.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Knicks vs. Spurs prediction: Who will win Game 1?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's NBA FInals matchup between the Knicks and Spurs, forming part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Spurs a 67% chance of defeating the Knicks in Game 1 of the 2026 Finals. Our predicted final score in Game 226 of the 2026 NBA Finals has the Spurs winning 111-106.
According to our model, the Spurs (-4.5) have a 51% chance of covering the spread, while the 218.5-point over/under has a 51% chance of going over.
Knicks vs. Spurs Game 1 odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Bet Type
Knicks
Spurs
Spread
+4.5 (-106)
-4.5 (-110)
Moneyline
+160
-184
Total
o218.5 (-108)
u218.5 (-112)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Knicks vs. Spurs picks and best bet for Game 1
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Knicks vs. Spurs Game 1 player props
NBA prop bets are a common way to wager on the New York vs. San Antonio matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Frost Bank Center.
Jalen Brunson is expected to lead the Knicks with 25 points, 3 rebounds and 7 assists, while Victor Wembanyama is projected to have 28 points, 11 rebounds and 4 assists for the Spurs.
Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to Victor Wembanyama striking first with a 13.6% probability.
Victor Wembanyama is projected to score 28 points tonight.
The winner of the 2026 NBA Finals between the Knicks and Spurs gets the Larry O'Brien Trophy. Game 226 of the best-of-seven series is at San Antonio's Frost Bank Center.
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Conclusion
We predict the Spurs, with a 67% win probability, will likely beat the Knicks in Game 1 of the 2026 Finals.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
