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Read Article MLB picks today: Friday's MLB best bets include Rays vs. Yankees play [5/22/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get MLB picks today and best bets for Friday, May 22, 2026.
Today’s MLB picks for May 22, 2026 are here, with Rays vs. Yankees and Astros vs. Cubs among the top plays identified by our model across Friday’s MLB schedule.
Dimers’ predictive analytics engine runs 24/7, going over the latest baseball odds to uncover legitimate betting edges. The result? Data-backed picks that help Dimers Pro members make smarter decisions.
List of MLB best bets tonight [5/22, updated 9:31PM ET]
Below, you’ll find today’s top 10 baseball bets, ranked by edge for Friday, May 22, 2026.
Rays vs. Yankees over 4.5 runs (+100)
- Edge: 11.9%
- Probability: 61.9%
- Matchup: Rays vs. Yankees (1:35PM ET, Saturday)
Our model has identified value on over 4.5 runs in Rays vs. Yankees at +100 odds. A 61.9% probability produces an edge of 11.9%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.
Astros vs. Cubs over 7.5 runs (+100)
- Edge: 5.3%
- Probability: 55.3%
- Matchup: Astros vs. Cubs (2:20PM ET, Saturday)
Astros vs. Cubs over 7.5 runs carries a 5.3% edge and a probability of 55.3% at +100 odds, according to our model.
Pirates vs. Blue Jays over 7.5 runs (+100)
- Edge: 4.9%
- Probability: 54.9%
- Matchup: Pirates vs. Blue Jays (3:07PM ET, Saturday)
Pirates vs. Blue Jays over 7.5 runs at +100 odds shows a 4.9% edge, supported by a 54.9% probability in simulations.
White Sox vs. Giants over 8.5 runs (+111)
- Edge: 4.7%
- Probability: 52.2%
- Matchup: White Sox vs. Giants (4:05PM ET, Saturday)
A 4.7% edge and 52.2% probability make White Sox vs. Giants over 8.5 runs at a value play in the White Sox vs. Giants matchup, per our model.
White Sox vs. Giants over 7.5 runs (+111)
- Edge: 4.7%
- Probability: 52.2%
- Matchup: White Sox vs. Giants (10:15PM ET, Friday)
White Sox vs. Giants over 7.5 runs at +111 odds presents a 4.7% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 52.2%.
Dodgers vs. Brewers over 8.5 runs (-117)
- Edge: 4.5%
- Probability: 58.5%
- Matchup: Dodgers vs. Brewers (7:15PM ET, Saturday)
Our model finds value on over 8.5 runs in Dodgers vs. Brewers at -117 odds, supported by an edge of 4.5%.
Tigers vs. Orioles over 8.5 runs (+113)
- Edge: 4.3%
- Probability: 51.3%
- Matchup: Tigers vs. Orioles (4:05PM ET, Saturday)
Our model has uncovered value on Tigers vs. Orioles over 8.5 runs at +113 odds. A 51.3% probability produces a 4.3% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.
Guardians vs. Phillies over 7.5 runs (+113)
- Edge: 4.2%
- Probability: 51.2%
- Matchup: Guardians vs. Phillies (4:05PM ET, Saturday)
A 4.2% edge on a 51.2% probability makes over 7.5 runs at +113 odds a solid value play in today's Guardians vs. Phillies matchup.
Nationals vs. Braves over 8.5 runs (-115)
- Edge: 4.1%
- Probability: 57.6%
- Matchup: Nationals vs. Braves (4:10PM ET, Saturday)
Our model projects value on over 8.5 runs at -115 odds. A 57.6% probability produces a 4.1% edge, making the over the favorable side in Saturday’s matchup.
Mariners vs. Royals over 8.5 runs (-106)
- Edge: 2.9%
- Probability: 54.4%
- Matchup: Mariners vs. Royals (4:10PM ET, Saturday)
Rounding out our top 10 bets, Mariners vs. Royals over 8.5 runs at -106 odds shows a 54.4% probability and a 2.9% edge.
MLB best bets summary: Friday, 5/22/2026
As of 9:31PM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:
| Matchup | Bet | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays vs. Yankees | Over 4.5 Runs | +100 @ Polymarket | 11.9% | 61.9% |
| Astros vs. Cubs | Over 7.5 Runs | +100 @ espnbet | 5.3% | 55.3% |
| Pirates vs. Blue Jays | Over 7.5 Runs | +100 @ Polymarket | 4.9% | 54.9% |
| White Sox vs. Giants | Over 8.5 Runs | +111 @ Polymarket | 4.7% | 52.2% |
| White Sox vs. Giants | Over 7.5 Runs | +111 @ Polymarket | 4.7% | 52.2% |
| Dodgers vs. Brewers | Over 8.5 Runs | -117 @ Polymarket | 4.5% | 58.5% |
| Tigers vs. Orioles | Over 8.5 Runs | +113 @ Polymarket | 4.3% | 51.3% |
| Guardians vs. Phillies | Over 7.5 Runs | +113 @ Kalshi | 4.2% | 51.2% |
| Nationals vs. Braves | Over 8.5 Runs | -115 @ Polymarket | 4.1% | 57.6% |
| Mariners vs. Royals | Over 8.5 Runs | -106 @ Polymarket | 2.9% | 54.4% |
List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [5/22/2026]
- Rangers vs. Angels (9:38PM ET, Friday)
- Rockies vs. D-Backs (9:40PM ET, Friday)
- Athletics vs. Padres (9:40PM ET, Friday)
- White Sox vs. Giants (10:15PM ET, Friday)
- Rays vs. Yankees (1:35PM ET, Saturday)
- Astros vs. Cubs (2:20PM ET, Saturday)
- Pirates vs. Blue Jays (3:07PM ET, Saturday)
- Guardians vs. Phillies (4:05PM ET, Saturday)
- White Sox vs. Giants (4:05PM ET, Saturday)
- Tigers vs. Orioles (4:05PM ET, Saturday)
- Mariners vs. Royals (4:10PM ET, Saturday)
- Mets vs. Marlins (4:10PM ET, Saturday)
- Nationals vs. Braves (4:10PM ET, Saturday)
- Dodgers vs. Brewers (7:15PM ET, Saturday)
Conclusion
Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for May 22, 2026, featuring plays such as over 4.5 runs in the Rays vs. Yankees matchup and over 7.5 runs in the Astros vs. Cubs matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.
Our predictions are drawn from current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.
All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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