May 17, 2026
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Read Article MLB picks today: Sunday's MLB best bets include Rangers vs. Astros play [5/17/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get MLB picks today and best bets for Sunday, May 17, 2026.
Today’s MLB picks for May 17, 2026 are here, with Rangers vs. Astros and Brewers vs. Twins among the top plays identified by our model across Sunday’s MLB slate.
Dimers’ predictive analytics engine runs 24/7, scanning the latest baseball odds to unearth top betting edges. The result? Data-backed plays that help Dimers Pro members make smarter decisions.
List of MLB best bets today [5/17, updated 4:01AM ET]
Below, you’ll find today’s top 10 baseball bets, ranked by edge for Sunday, May 17, 2026.
Rangers vs. Astros over 5.5 runs (+100)
- Edge: 10.6%
- Probability: 60.6%
- Matchup: Rangers vs. Astros (2:10PM ET, Sunday)
Our model has identified value on over 5.5 runs in Rangers vs. Astros at +100 odds. A 60.6% probability produces an edge of 10.6%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.
Brewers vs. Twins over 7.5 runs (-106)
- Edge: 6.7%
- Probability: 58.2%
- Matchup: Brewers vs. Twins (2:10PM ET, Sunday)
Brewers vs. Twins over 7.5 runs carries a 6.7% edge and a probability of 58.2% at -106 odds, according to our model.
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies over 10.5 runs (-102)
- Edge: 5.8%
- Probability: 56.3%
- Matchup: Diamondbacks vs. Rockies (3:10PM ET, Sunday)
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies over 10.5 runs at -102 odds shows a 5.8% edge, supported by a 56.3% probability in simulations.
Red Sox vs. Braves over 8.5 runs (+102)
- Edge: 5.4%
- Probability: 54.9%
- Matchup: Red Sox vs. Braves (1:35PM ET, Sunday)
A 5.4% edge and 54.9% probability make Red Sox vs. Braves over 8.5 runs at a value play in the Red Sox vs. Braves matchup, per our model.
Blue Jays vs. Tigers over 7.5 runs (-108)
- Edge: 4.4%
- Probability: 56.4%
- Matchup: Blue Jays vs. Tigers (1:40PM ET, Sunday)
Blue Jays vs. Tigers over 7.5 runs at -108 odds presents a 4.4% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 56.4%.
Twins ML (+120)
- Edge: 4.3%
- Probability: 49.8%
- Matchup: Brewers vs. Twins (2:10PM ET, Sunday)
Our model finds value on Twins to win at +120 odds, supported by an edge of 4.3%.
Reds vs. Guardians over 8.5 runs (+102)
- Edge: 4.1%
- Probability: 53.6%
- Matchup: Reds vs. Guardians (1:40PM ET, Sunday)
Our model has uncovered value on Reds vs. Guardians over 8.5 runs at +102 odds. A 53.6% probability produces a 4.1% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.
Padres vs. Mariners over 7.5 runs (-102)
- Edge: 3.9%
- Probability: 54.4%
- Matchup: Padres vs. Mariners (7:20PM ET, Sunday)
A 3.9% edge on a 54.4% probability makes over 7.5 runs at -102 odds a solid value play in today's Padres vs. Mariners matchup.
Cubs vs. White Sox over 8.5 runs (+102)
- Edge: 3.7%
- Probability: 53.2%
- Matchup: Cubs vs. White Sox (2:10PM ET, Sunday)
Our model projects value on over 8.5 runs at +102 odds. A 53.2% probability produces a 3.7% edge, making the over the favorable side in Saturday’s matchup.
Phillies ML (+135)
- Edge: 3.2%
- Probability: 45.7%
- Matchup: Phillies vs. Pirates (1:35PM ET, Sunday)
Rounding out our top 10 bets, Phillies to defeat Pirates at +135 odds shows a 45.7% probability and a 3.2% edge.
MLB best bets summary: Sunday, 5/17/2026
As of 4:01AM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:
| Matchup | Bet | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers vs. Astros | Over 5.5 Runs | +100 @ polymarket | 10.6% | 60.6% |
| Brewers vs. Twins | Over 7.5 Runs | -106 @ polymarket | 6.7% | 58.2% |
| Diamondbacks vs. Rockies | Over 10.5 Runs | -102 @ polymarket | 5.8% | 56.3% |
| Red Sox vs. Braves | Over 8.5 Runs | +102 @ polymarket | 5.4% | 54.9% |
| Blue Jays vs. Tigers | Over 7.5 Runs | -108 @ polymarket | 4.4% | 56.4% |
| Brewers vs. Twins | Twins ML | +120 @ polymarket | 4.3% | 49.8% |
| Reds vs. Guardians | Over 8.5 Runs | +102 @ polymarket | 4.1% | 53.6% |
| Padres vs. Mariners | Over 7.5 Runs | -102 @ polymarket | 3.9% | 54.4% |
| Cubs vs. White Sox | Over 8.5 Runs | +102 @ polymarket | 3.7% | 53.2% |
| Phillies vs. Pirates | Phillies ML | +135 @ polymarket | 3.2% | 45.7% |
List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [5/17/2026]
- Marlins vs. Rays (12:15PM ET, Sunday)
- Phillies vs. Pirates (1:35PM ET, Sunday)
- Orioles vs. Nationals (1:35PM ET, Sunday)
- Red Sox vs. Braves (1:35PM ET, Sunday)
- Reds vs. Guardians (1:40PM ET, Sunday)
- Blue Jays vs. Tigers (1:40PM ET, Sunday)
- Yankees vs. Mets (1:40PM ET, Sunday)
- Cubs vs. White Sox (2:10PM ET, Sunday)
- Rangers vs. Astros (2:10PM ET, Sunday)
- Brewers vs. Twins (2:10PM ET, Sunday)
- Royals vs. Cardinals (2:15PM ET, Sunday)
- D-Backs vs. Rockies (3:10PM ET, Sunday)
- Giants vs. Athletics (4:05PM ET, Sunday)
- Dodgers vs. Angels (4:07PM ET, Sunday)
- Padres vs. Mariners (7:20PM ET, Sunday)
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Conclusion
Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for May 17, 2026, featuring plays such as over 5.5 runs in the Rangers vs. Astros matchup and over 7.5 runs in the Brewers vs. Twins matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.
Our predictions are drawn from current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.
All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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