Jul 6, 2026
MLB picks today: Monday's MLB best bets include Yankees vs. Rays play [7/6/2026]
Read Article MLB player props today: Monday's best props include Dustin May [7/6/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get MLB player props today with projections for Monday's games.
Dimers' MLB props are live for July 6, 2026, with today's top prop bets led by the likes of Dustin May, Kyle Freeland and Shane Drohan.
Our MLB player props model runs continuously, analyzing every matchup, including Mets vs. Braves and Phillies vs. Royals, to surface the best MLB player prop bets across the market.
List of MLB prop picks for Monday, 7/6
Sourced from 70+ total MLB props on site today, below are the top 10 MLB player props for July 6, ranked by probability.
Dustin May over 3.5 strikeouts (-165)
- Edge: 8.8%
- Probability: 71.1%
- Game: Brewers vs. Cardinals (7:45PM ET)
Our model has flagged value on St. Louis' Dustin May over 3.5 strikeouts. A probability of 71.1% gives this play an edge of 8.8% at -165 odds.
Kyle Freeland under 4.5 strikeouts (-158)
- Edge: 8.2%
- Probability: 69.4%
- Game: Rockies vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET)
Kyle Freeland’s strikeouts prop shows a 69.4% probability and an 8.2% edge at -158 odds, according to our model.
Shane Drohan under 4.5 strikeouts (-142)
- Edge: 8.3%
- Probability: 67.0%
- Game: Brewers vs. Cardinals (7:45PM ET)
The data highlights value on Shane Drohan under 4.5 strikeouts, with simulations showing a 67.0% probability and an 8.3% edge at -142.
Mike Burrows under 16.5 outs recorded (-122)
- Edge: 8.4%
- Probability: 63.3%
- Game: Astros vs. Nationals (6:45PM ET)
Our model finds value on Mike Burrows under 16.5 outs recorded, with a 63.3% probability and an edge of 8.4% at -122 odds.
Landen Roupp under 5.5 hits allowed (-134)
- Edge: 5.3%
- Probability: 62.6%
- Game: Blue Jays vs. Giants (9:45PM ET)
Simulations indicate value on Landen Roupp under 5.5 hits allowed for San Francisco, showing an edge of 5.3% at -134 odds.
Brandon Pfaadt over 4.5 hits allowed (-140)
- Edge: 3.3%
- Probability: 61.6%
- Game: D-Backs vs. Padres (9:40PM ET)
Brandon Pfaadt’s hits allowed prop shows an edge of 3.3% at -140 odds, supported by a 61.6% probability according to our model.
Walker Buehler over 4.5 hits allowed (-125)
- Edge: 5.7%
- Probability: 61.3%
- Game: D-Backs vs. Padres (9:40PM ET)
Our model highlights value on Walker Buehler over 4.5 hits allowed for San Diego, with a 61.3% probability and a 5.7% edge at -125 odds.
Taylor Trammell to get a hit (-140)
- Edge: 2.5%
- Probability: 60.9%
- Game: Astros vs. Nationals (6:45PM ET)
The data shows value on Taylor Trammell to get a hit, supported by a 60.9% probability at -140 odds and an edge of 2.5%.
Derek Hill to get a hit (-135)
- Edge: 3.2%
- Probability: 60.6%
- Game: Phillies vs. Royals (2:10PM ET)
A 3.2% edge on the to get a hit line makes Derek Hill a value play in Phillies vs. Royals, supported by a 60.6% probability at -135 odds.
Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 bases (-130)
- Edge: 3.8%
- Probability: 60.3%
- Game: Astros vs. Nationals (6:45PM ET)
Simulations show value on Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 bases here, with a 60.3% probability and 3.8% edge at -130 odds.
MLB player prop summary: Monday, July 6, 2026
A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 4:45AM ET:
| Matchup | Prop | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers vs. Cardinals | Dustin May over 3.5 strikeouts | -165 @ DraftKings | 8.8% | 71.1% |
| Rockies vs. Dodgers | Kyle Freeland under 4.5 strikeouts | -158 @ DraftKings | 8.2% | 69.4% |
| Brewers vs. Cardinals | Shane Drohan under 4.5 strikeouts | -142 @ DraftKings | 8.4% | 63.3% |
| Astros vs. Nationals | Mike Burrows under 16.5 outs recorded | -122 @ DraftKings | 8.4% | 63.3% |
| Blue Jays vs. Giants | Landen Roupp under 5.5 hits allowed | -134 @ DraftKings | 5.3% | 62.6% |
| D-Backs vs. Padres | Brandon Pfaadt over 4.5 hits allowed | -140 @ DraftKings | 3.3% | 61.6% |
| D-Backs vs. Padres | Walker Buehler over 4.5 hits allowed | -125 @ DraftKings | 5.7% | 61.3% |
| Astros vs. Nationals | Taylor Trammell to get a hit | -140 @ DraftKings | 2.5% | 60.9% |
| Phillies vs. Royals | Derek Hill to get a hit | -135 @ DraftKings | 3.2% | 60.6% |
| Astros vs. Nationals | Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 bases | -130 @ Fanatics | 3.8% | 60.3% |
Conclusion
For July 6, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Dustin May, Kyle Freeland and Shane Drohan. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.
Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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