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Read Article Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Monday has +575 odds [5/18/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get home run predictions today backed by expert analysis of Monday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Monday, May 18, 2026, feature Aaron Judge as the top projected hitter, per Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Monday's HR projections come from our home run predictions, built to highlight the top home run bets today.
Home run predictions for May 18, 2026
See which hitters join Judge on today’s list — including one long-shot pick the model rates as value at +575.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 26.5% |
| Jake Burger (Rangers) | 21.4% |
| Ben Rice (Yankees) | 20.6% |
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 20.5% |
| Juan Soto (Mets) | 20.1% |
| Nick Kurtz (Athletics) | 20.0% |
| Jazz Chisholm (Yankees) | 19.5% |
| Michael Busch (Cubs) | 19.3% |
| Jo Adell (Angels) | 18.8% |
| Shea Langeliers (Athletics) | 18.7% |
Our analysis shows Judge leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 26.5% chance to go yard, followed by Jake Burger (21.4%) and Ben Rice (20.6%).
Kyle Schwarber and Juan Soto are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Monday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Monday's home run picks [5/18/2026]
Powered by 10,000 simulations and data-driven factors like weather and pitcher form, Dimers Pro spotlights today’s top home run prop.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (Yankees) to hit a home run
- Probability: 19.5%
- Odds: bet_rivers_in+575
- Edge: 4.7%
- Game: Blue Jays vs. Yankees (7:05 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Patrick Corbin
Ranked among today’s top 10 home run projections, New York slugger Jazz Chisholm Jr. rates as a value play at +575 with bet_rivers_in, showing a 4.7% edge.
Against Blue Jays starter Patrick Corbin, the data supports Jr. as one of Monday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to a total of 11 home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For May 18, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Aaron Judge, Jake Burger and Ben Rice projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Jazz Chisholm Jr. who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 4.7% edge at +575 odds.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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