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Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Saturday has +1120 odds [4/18/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get home run predictions today guided by expert analysis of Saturday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Saturday, April 18, 2026, feature Shohei Ohtani as the top projected hitter, according to Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Saturday's HR projections pull from our proprietary home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the top slugging candidates today.
Home run predictions for April 18, 2026
See which hitters join Ohtani on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +1120.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 25.3% |
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 25.3% |
| Nick Kurtz (Athletics) | 24.2% |
| Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees) | 22.7% |
| Shea Langeliers (Athletics) | 22.4% |
| Yordan Alvarez (Astros) | 19.8% |
| Ben Rice (Yankees) | 19.4% |
| Kyle Tucker (Dodgers) | 19.2% |
| Tyler Soderstrom (Athletics) | 19.2% |
| Teoscar Hernandez (Dodgers) | 18.6% |
Our analysis shows Ohtani leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 25.3% chance to go yard, followed by Aaron Judge (25.3%) and Nick Kurtz (24.2%).
Giancarlo Stanton and Shea Langeliers are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Saturday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Saturday's home run picks [4/18/2026]
Powered by 10,000 simulations and data-driven factors like weather and pitcher form, Dimers Pro highlights today’s top home run prop.
Yainer Diaz (Astros) to hit a home run
- Probability: 14.2%
- Odds: +1120
- Edge: 6.0%
- Game: Cardinals vs. Astros (7:10 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Andre Pallante
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Houston slugger Yainer Diaz rates as a value play at +1120 with FanDuel Sportsbook, showing a 6.0% edge.
Set to face Andre Pallante in tonight's Cardinals-Astros matchup, the data supports Diaz as one of Saturday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to a total of 15 home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For April 18, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge and Nick Kurtz projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Yainer Diaz who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 6.0% edge at +1120 odds.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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