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Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Thursday has +980 odds [4/23/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get home run predictions today guided by expert analysis of Thursday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Thursday, April 23, 2026, feature Fernando Tatis as the top projected hitter, based on Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Thursday's HR projections pull from our proprietary home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the most likely home run hitters today.
Home run predictions for April 23, 2026
See which hitters join Tatis on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +980.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis (Padres) | 21.2% |
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 19.3% |
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 19.1% |
| Manny Machado (Padres) | 19.0% |
| Hunter Goodman (Rockies) | 18.2% |
| Jake Burger (Rangers) | 17.6% |
| Ramon Laureano (Padres) | 17.5% |
| Jackson Merrill (Padres) | 17.4% |
| Ronald Acuna (Braves) | 17.4% |
| Corey Seager (Rangers) | 17.3% |
Our analysis shows Tatis leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 21.2% chance to go yard, followed by Aaron Judge (19.3%) and Kyle Schwarber (19.1%).
Manny Machado and Hunter Goodman are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Thursday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Thursday's home run picks [4/23/2026]
Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, surfaces today’s highest-rated home run prop.
Michael Busch (Cubs) to hit a home run
- Probability: 13.8%
- Odds: +980
- Edge: 4.5%
- Game: Phillies vs. Cubs (2:20 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Cristopher Sánchez
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Chicago slugger Michael Busch rates as a value play at +980 with FanDuel Sportsbook, showing a 4.5% edge.
Set to face Cristopher Sánchez in tonight's Phillies-Cubs matchup, the data supports Busch as one of Thursday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to a total of seven home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For April 23, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Fernando Tatis, Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Michael Busch who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 4.5% edge at +980 odds.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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