Jul 7, 2026
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Read Article Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Dinger Tuesday has +830 odds [7/7/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get home run predictions today guided by expert analysis of Tuesday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Tuesday, July 7, 2026, feature Shohei Ohtani as the top projected hitter, per Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Tuesday's HR projections come straight from our home run predictions, built to highlight the top home run picks today.
Home run predictions for July 7, 2026
See which hitters join Ohtani on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +830.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 27.5% |
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 22.2% |
| Kyle Tucker (Dodgers) | 20.3% |
| Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers) | 20.0% |
| Max Muncy (Dodgers) | 19.4% |
| Cal Raleigh (Mariners) | 19.1% |
| Yordan Alvarez (Astros) | 18.9% |
| Pete Alonso (Orioles) | 17.8% |
| Junior Caminero (Rays) | 17.7% |
| Andy Pages (Dodgers) | 17.7% |
Our analysis shows Ohtani leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 27.5% chance to go yard, followed by Kyle Schwarber (22.2%) and Kyle Tucker (20.3%).
Teoscar Hernández and Max Muncy are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Tuesday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Tuesday's home run picks [7/7/2026]
Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, highlights today’s highest-rated home run prop.
Yainer Diaz (Astros) to hit a home run
- Probability: 13.8%
- Odds: +830
- Edge: 3.0%
- Game: Astros vs. Nationals (6:45 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Andrew Alvarez
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Houston slugger Yainer Diaz rates as a value play at +830 with FanDuel Sportsbook, showing a 3.0% edge.
Set to face Andrew Alvarez in tonight's Astros-Nationals matchup, the data supports Diaz as one of Tuesday’s strongest value spots among available home run props — and a natural fit for Dinger Tuesday, a weekly tradition where bettors focus on home run value plays across the slate.
Originally sparked by sportsbook offers rewarding bonus bets for each home run hit by a selected player, Dinger Tuesday has evolved into a weekly tradition for MLB bettors — where clear, model-driven insights like these can help separate signal from noise.
Pro users have access to all of our home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For July 7, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber and Kyle Tucker projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Yainer Diaz who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 3.0% edge at +830 odds.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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