MLB player props today: Sunday's best props include Payton Tolle [7/12/2026]
Get MLB player props today with projections for Sunday's games.
Dimers' MLB props are live for July 12, 2026, with today's top prop bets led by the likes of Payton Tolle, Tarik Skubal and Zack Wheeler.
Our MLB player props model runs continuously, analyzing every matchup, including Royals vs. Orioles and Phillies vs. Tigers, to surface the best MLB player prop bets across the market.
List of MLB prop bets for Sunday, 7/12
Below are the top 10 MLB player props for July 12, ranked by probability.
Payton Tolle under 17.5 outs recorded (-137)
- Edge: 8.1%
- Probability: 65.9%
- Game: Red Sox vs. Mets (1:40PM ET)
Our model has found value on Boston's Payton Tolle under 17.5 outs recorded. A probability of 65.9% gives this play an edge of 8.1% at -137 odds.
Tarik Skubal under 7.5 strikeouts (-113)
- Edge: 5.6%
- Probability: 58.6%
- Game: Phillies vs. Tigers (1:40PM ET)
Tarik Skubal’s strikeouts prop shows a 58.6% probability and an 5.6% edge at -113 odds, according to our model.
Zack Wheeler over 18.5 outs recorded (+122)
- Edge: 4.2%
- Probability: 49.3%
- Game: Phillies vs. Tigers (1:40PM ET)
The data highlights value on Zack Wheeler over 18.5 outs recorded, with simulations showing a 49.3% probability and a 4.2% edge at +122.
Seth Lugo over 15.5 outs recorded (+115)
- Edge: 2.7%
- Probability: 49.2%
- Game: Royals vs. Orioles (1:35PM ET)
Our model finds value on Seth Lugo over 15.5 outs recorded, with a 49.2% probability and an edge of 2.7% at +115 odds.
Bryce Eldridge over 1.5 bases (+158)
- Edge: 2.8%
- Probability: 41.6%
- Game: Rockies vs. Giants (4:05PM ET)
Simulations indicate value on Bryce Eldridge over 1.5 bases for San Francisco, showing an edge of 2.8% at +158 odds.
Colton Cowser over 1.5 bases (+165)
- Edge: 3.5%
- Probability: 41.2%
- Game: Royals vs. Orioles (1:35PM ET)
Colton Cowser’s bases prop shows an edge of 3.5% at +165 odds, supported by a 41.2% probability according to our model.
Bo Bichette over 1.5 bases (+161)
- Edge: 2.0%
- Probability: 40.3%
- Game: Red Sox vs. Mets (1:40PM ET)
Our model highlights value on Bo Bichette over 1.5 bases for NY Mets, with a 40.3% probability and a 2.0% edge at +161 odds.
Jackson Holliday over 1.5 bases (+168)
- Edge: 2.8%
- Probability: 40.2%
- Game: Royals vs. Orioles (1:35PM ET)
The data shows value on Jackson Holliday over 1.5 bases, supported by a 40.2% probability at +168 odds and an edge of 2.8%.
Jorge Polanco over 1.5 bases (+195)
- Edge: 4.2%
- Probability: 38.1%
- Game: Red Sox vs. Mets (1:40PM ET)
A 4.2% edge on the over 1.5 bases line makes Jorge Polanco a value play in Red Sox vs. Mets, supported by a 38.1% probability at +195 odds.
Drew Gilbert over 1.5 bases (+185)
- Edge: 2.3%
- Probability: 37.4%
- Game: Rockies vs. Giants (4:05PM ET)
Simulations show value on Drew Gilbert over 1.5 bases here, with a 37.4% probability and 2.3% edge at +185 odds.
MLB player prop summary: Sunday, July 12, 2026
A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 1:20AM ET:
| Matchup | Prop | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox vs. Mets | Payton Tolle under 17.5 outs recorded | -137 @ DraftKings | 8.1% | 65.9% |
| Phillies vs. Tigers | Tarik Skubal under 7.5 strikeouts | -113 @ DraftKings | 5.6% | 58.6% |
| Phillies vs. Tigers | Zack Wheeler over 18.5 outs recorded | +122 @ DraftKings | 2.7% | 49.2% |
| Royals vs. Orioles | Seth Lugo over 15.5 outs recorded | +115 @ DraftKings | 2.7% | 49.2% |
| Rockies vs. Giants | Bryce Eldridge over 1.5 bases | +158 @ DraftKings | 2.8% | 41.6% |
| Royals vs. Orioles | Colton Cowser over 1.5 bases | +165 @ DraftKings | 3.5% | 41.2% |
| Red Sox vs. Mets | Bo Bichette over 1.5 bases | +161 @ DraftKings | 2.0% | 40.3% |
| Royals vs. Orioles | Jackson Holliday over 1.5 bases | +168 @ DraftKings | 2.8% | 40.2% |
| Red Sox vs. Mets | Jorge Polanco over 1.5 bases | +195 @ DraftKings | 4.2% | 38.1% |
| Rockies vs. Giants | Drew Gilbert over 1.5 bases | +185 @ FanDuel | 2.3% | 37.4% |
Conclusion
For July 12, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Payton Tolle, Tarik Skubal and Zack Wheeler. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.
Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
