MLB player props today: Thursday's best props include Braxton Ashcraft [4/16/2026]

Braxton Ashcraft over 1.5 earned runs (-161)

• Edge: 6.8%
• Probability: 68.5%
• Game: Nationals vs. Pirates (12:35PM ET)

Our model has found value on Pittsburgh's Braxton Ashcraft over 1.5 earned runs. A probability of 68.5% gives this play an edge of 6.8% at -161 odds.

Foster Griffin over 14.5 outs recorded (-163)

• Edge: 3.3%
• Probability: 65.2%
• Game: Nationals vs. Pirates (12:35PM ET)

Foster Griffin’s outs recorded prop shows a 65.2% probability and an 3.3% edge at -163 odds, according to our model.

Walker Buehler over 3.5 strikeouts (-136)

• Edge: 7.3%
• Probability: 65.0%
• Game: Mariners vs. Padres (8:40PM ET)

The data highlights value on Walker Buehler over 3.5 strikeouts, with simulations showing a 65.0% probability and a 7.3% edge at -136.

Jacob Lopez over 4.5 hits allowed (-105)

• Edge: 4.0%
• Probability: 62.7%
• Game: Rangers vs. Athletics (3:05PM ET)

Our model finds value on Jacob Lopez over 4.5 hits allowed, with a 62.7% probability and an edge of 4.0% at -105 odds.

Braxton Ashcraft over 4.5 strikeouts (-130)

• Edge: 5.6%
• Probability: 62.2%
• Game: Nationals vs. Pirates (12:35PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Braxton Ashcraft over 4.5 strikeouts for Pittsburgh, showing an edge of 5.6% at -130 odds.

Braxton Ashcraft over 16.5 outs recorded (-106)

• Edge: 9.9%
• Probability: 61.4%
• Game: Nationals vs. Pirates (12:35PM ET)

Braxton Ashcraft’s outs recorded prop shows an edge of 9.9% at -106 odds, supported by a 61.4% probability according to our model.

Landen Roupp under 5.5 strikeouts (-103)

• Edge: 7.8%
• Probability: 61.1%
• Game: Giants vs. Reds (12:40PM ET)

Our model highlights value on Landen Roupp under 5.5 strikeouts for San Francisco, with a 61.1% probability and a 7.8% edge at -103 odds.

Chase Burns under 16.5 outs recorded (-122)

• Edge: 4.9%
• Probability: 59.9%
• Game: Giants vs. Reds (12:40PM ET)

The data shows value on Chase Burns under 16.5 outs recorded, supported by a 59.9% probability at -122 odds and an edge of 4.9%.

Luis Castillo over 4.5 strikeouts (-118)

• Edge: 5.3%
• Probability: 59.4%
• Game: Mariners vs. Padres (8:40PM ET)

A 5.3% edge on the over 16.5 strikeouts line makes Luis Castillo a value play in Mariners vs. Padres, supported by a 59.4% probability at -118 odds.

Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 bases (-112)

• Edge: 6.5%
• Probability: 59.3%
• Game: Rockies vs. Astros (8:10PM ET)

Simulations show value on Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 bases here, with a 59.3% probability and 6.5% edge at -112 odds.

MLB player prop summary: Thursday, April 16, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 8:26AM ET:

Matchup	Prop	Odds	Edge	Probability
Nationals vs. Pirates	Braxton Ashcraft over 1.5 earned runs	-161 @ DraftKings	6.8%	68.5%
Nationals vs. Pirates	Foster Griffin over 14.5 outs recorded	-163 @ DraftKings	3.3%	65.2%
Mariners vs. Padres	Walker Buehler over 3.5 strikeouts	-136 @ DraftKings	4.0%	62.7%
Rangers vs. Athletics	Jacob Lopez over 4.5 hits allowed	-105 @ DraftKings	4.0%	62.7%
Nationals vs. Pirates	Braxton Ashcraft over 4.5 strikeouts	-130 @ FanDuel	5.6%	62.2%
Nationals vs. Pirates	Braxton Ashcraft over 16.5 outs recorded	-106 @ DraftKings	9.9%	61.4%
Giants vs. Reds	Landen Roupp under 5.5 strikeouts	-103 @ DraftKings	7.8%	61.1%
Giants vs. Reds	Chase Burns under 16.5 outs recorded	-122 @ DraftKings	4.9%	59.9%
Mariners vs. Padres	Luis Castillo over 16.5 strikeouts	-118 @ FanDuel	5.3%	59.4%
Rockies vs. Astros	Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 bases	-112 @ DraftKings	6.5%	59.3%

Conclusion

For April 16, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Braxton Ashcraft, Foster Griffin and Walker Buehler. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.