Jul 9, 2026
MLB picks today: Thursday's MLB best bets include Angels vs. Rangers play [7/9/2026]
Read Article MLB player props today: Thursday's best props include Gavin Williams [7/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get MLB player props today with projections for Thursday's games.
Dimers' MLB props are live for July 9, 2026, with today's top prop bets led by the likes of Gavin Williams, Bailey Ober and Merrill Kelly.
Our MLB player props model runs continuously, analyzing every matchup, including Cubs vs. Orioles and Phillies vs. Reds, to surface the best MLB player prop bets across the market.
List of MLB prop picks for Thursday, 7/9
Sourced from 40+ total MLB props on site today, below are the top 10 MLB player props for July 9, ranked by probability.
Gavin Williams under 6.5 strikeouts (-153)
- Edge: 9.9%
- Probability: 70.3%
- Game: Guardians vs. Twins (1:40PM ET)
Our model has found value on Cleveland's Gavin Williams under 6.5 strikeouts. A probability of 70.3% gives this play an edge of 9.9% at -153 odds.
Bailey Ober over 3.5 strikeouts (-151)
- Edge: 9.1%
- Probability: 69.2%
- Game: Guardians vs. Twins (1:40PM ET)
Bailey Ober’s strikeouts prop shows a 69.2% probability and an 9.1% edge at -151 odds, according to our model.
Merrill Kelly over 3.5 strikeouts (-155)
- Edge: 8.2%
- Probability: 69.0%
- Game: D-Backs vs. Padres (9:40PM ET)
The data highlights value on Merrill Kelly over 3.5 strikeouts, with simulations showing a 69.0% probability and an 8.2% edge at -155.
Reid Detmers under 6.5 strikeouts (-158)
- Edge: 4.9%
- Probability: 66.1%
- Game: Angels vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET)
Our model finds value on Reid Detmers under 6.5 strikeouts, with a 66.1% probability and an edge of 4.9% at -158 odds.
Mitch Keller over 3.5 strikeouts (-150)
- Edge: 5.8%
- Probability: 65.8%
- Game: Braves vs. Pirates (12:35PM ET)
Simulations indicate value on Mitch Keller over 3.5 strikeouts for Pittsburgh, showing an edge of 5.8% at -150 odds.
Janson Junk over 3.5 strikeouts (-123)
- Edge: 6.4%
- Probability: 61.5%
- Game: Mariners vs. Marlins (6:40PM ET)
Janson Junk’s strikeouts prop shows an edge of 6.4% at -123 odds, supported by a 61.5% probability according to our model.
Logan Henderson under 4.5 strikeouts (-106)
- Edge: 9.4%
- Probability: 60.8%
- Game: Brewers vs. Cardinals (7:45PM ET)
Our model highlights value on Logan Henderson under 4.5 strikeouts for Milwaukee, with a 60.8% probability and a 9.4% edge at -106 odds.
Gavin Williams under 17.5 outs recorded (-124)
- Edge: 4.5%
- Probability: 59.8%
- Game: Guardians vs. Twins (1:40PM ET)
The data shows value on Gavin Williams under 17.5 outs recorded, supported by a 59.8% probability at -124 odds and an edge of 4.5%.
Jared Young to get a hit (-130)
- Edge: 2.6%
- Probability: 59.2%
- Game: Royals vs. Mets (1:10PM ET)
A 2.6% edge on the to get a hit line makes Jared Young a value play in Royals vs. Mets, supported by a 59.2% probability at -130 odds.
Bryan Torres to get a hit (-115)
- Edge: 5.2%
- Probability: 58.7%
- Game: Brewers vs. Cardinals (7:45PM ET)
Simulations show value on Bryan Torres to get a hit here, with a 58.7% probability and 5.2% edge at -115 odds.
MLB player prop summary: Thursday, July 9, 2026
A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 1:49AM ET:
| Matchup | Prop | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guardians vs. Twins | Gavin Williams under 6.5 strikeouts | -153 @ DraftKings | 9.9% | 70.3% |
| Guardians vs. Twins | Bailey Ober over 3.5 strikeouts | -151 @ DraftKings | 9.1% | 69.2% |
| D-Backs vs. Padres | Merrill Kelly over 3.5 strikeouts | -155 @ DraftKings | 4.9% | 66.1% |
| Angels vs. Rangers | Reid Detmers under 6.5 strikeouts | -158 @ FanDuel | 4.9% | 66.1% |
| Braves vs. Pirates | Mitch Keller over 3.5 strikeouts | -150 @ Fanatics | 5.8% | 65.8% |
| Mariners vs. Marlins | Janson Junk over 3.5 strikeouts | -123 @ DraftKings | 6.4% | 61.5% |
| Brewers vs. Cardinals | Logan Henderson under 4.5 strikeouts | -106 @ DraftKings | 9.4% | 60.8% |
| Guardians vs. Twins | Gavin Williams under 17.5 outs recorded | -124 @ DraftKings | 4.5% | 59.8% |
| Royals vs. Mets | Jared Young to get a hit | -130 @ Fanatics | 2.6% | 59.2% |
| Brewers vs. Cardinals | Bryan Torres to get a hit | -115 @ DraftKings | 5.2% | 58.7% |
Conclusion
For July 9, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Gavin Williams, Bailey Ober and Merrill Kelly. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.
Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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