MLB Props: Why Dimers' Sweet Spot says these pitchers are in for a rough night on Friday, April 24

Prop bet: Michael Lorenzen over 5.5 hits allowed (-103)

Matchup: Rockies vs. Mets (7:10pm ET)

The highest probability play from these three Sweet Spots comes in Rockies-Mets, as New York goes for its third-straight win after dropping 12 straight.

Michael Lorenzen projects as one today's worst pitchers, with the most ER allowed and 5.7 hits, giving us solid edge at nearly even money odds, thanks to his 53.5% probability to allow at least 6 hits.

Lorenzen has allowed 7+ hits in all 5 of his starts this year, even when he doesn't make it out of three innings.

So far this season, pitcher hit props have returned a 24.9% ROI over 28 bets in this edge range, a smaller sample size than other Sweet Spots, but very profitable to date.

Prop bet: Yusei Kikuchi over 5.5 hits allowed (+107)

Matchup: Angels vs. Royals (7:40pm ET)

Next up, we're going after Yusei Kikuchi in the same market, this time with some plus money odds at a lower probability of 51.1% for him to allow at least 6+ hits.

Kikuchi gave up 6+ hits in his first three starts before throwing two decent outings. He's got an expected opponent batting average in the bottom third percentile of qualified MLB pitchers.

He's been lucky with some of his batted balls as well; he ranks 3rd in MLB for the most home runs under his expected total, allowing 3 with 4.8 xHR, suggesting negative regression overall is on its way.

The Royals are struggling as a team, but their lineup just put up 34 hits over their three-game set with Baltimore and may be finding their stride.

Prop bet: Brayan Bello under 4.5 strikeouts (+104)

Matchup: Red sox vs. Orioles (7:05pm ET)

We switch markets for the final Sweet Spot play of the night, taking Red Sox starter to go under his 4.5 strikeout line against the Orioles.

Bello has a high Whiff rate among MLB pitchers, in the 88th percentile so far (highest in his career), but his K rate is in the 12th - he doesn't finish off batters, and he's under this in 3 of 4 starts, with just 2 Ks in a pair of those games

Innings have also been an issue, as he's only pitched 5 full innings once. The Orioles strike out with a Top 5 rate vs. righthanders, but if they can follow the pattern of success other teams have had vs. Bello, they could chase him from the game early.

Pitcher K props have returned ROI of 17.2% over the season across 32 bets in this edge range.

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