Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of Friday's NBA slate.
Our NBA first basket predictions for November 21, 2025, are based on Friday's latest data and matchups.
Our NBA first basket predictions for Friday, November 21, 2025, have landed—with Jaylen Brown of the Celtics the most likely player to score the first basket per the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.
Friday's first basket predictions come straight from our NBA first basket odds and player projections, which highlight not only first basket chances, but also projected points, rebounds, assists and more for every player on today's basketball slate.
Who will score the first basket tonight? [November 21, 2025]
According to our data-driven analysis, the most likely NBA player to score the first basket across all of today's matchups is Jaylen Brown, with a probability of 17.3%.
Player (Team)
FB Probability
Jaylen Brown (Celtics)
17.3%
Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)
17.1%
Lauri Markkanen (Jazz)
15.7%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)
15.7%
Deni Avdija (Trail Blazers)
15.6%
Stephen Curry (Warriors)
15.2%
Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers)
14.4%
Devin Booker (Suns)
14.3%
Norman Powell (Heat)
14.0%
Pascal Siakam (Pacers)
13.5%
Following Brown closely are Nikola Jokic at 17.1% and Lauri Markkanen at 15.7%.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Deni Avdija also feature, with the full list of first basket projections for Friday available via today’s NBA player projections.
Jaylen Brown is one of the most likely NBA players to score the first basket on Friday, November 21, 2025.
Best NBA first basket picks [11/21/2025]
After simulating the outcome of today's NBA matchups 10,000 times each, our predictive model has found the best NBA first basket bet for you to make on Friday.
Our model has identified the best NBA first basket bet for today's NBA slate in the game between the Nuggets and Rockets. The bet is on Nikola Jokic (DEN) at odds of +600 with FanDuel Sportsbook, with an edge of 2.8% according to our analysis.
Not only does Jokic present an edge according to the model, but he is also among our top three most likely first basket scorers for today, as noted in the list above.
For November 21, 2025, our NBA first basket predictions showcase big-name players like Jaylen Brown, Nikola Jokic and Lauri Markkanen—all of whom are among the top projected chances to open the scoring in today’s games. But when it comes to +EV betting, it’s Nikola Jokic who emerges as the top pick, showing a calculated 2.8% edge at +600 odds.
These projections are built from 10,000 game simulations, giving you a reliable base for smarter prop betting. Always wager with care—help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER if you or someone close to you needs support.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
