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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Black Friday basketball, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of Friday's NBA slate.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, November 28, 2025—are live with the Nuggets' Nikola Jokic projected as the most likely player to score first, according to Dimers’ latest first basket probabilities.
Dimers’ first basket projections are based on player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Maxey lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight the best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions today (November 28, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 18.8% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 16.7% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 15.6% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 15.2% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 14.6% |
| T.J. McConnell | Pacers | 14.6% |
| Anthony Davis | Mavericks | 14.5% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 13.9% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 13.9% |
| CJ McCollum | Wizards | 13.8% |
| Lauri Markkanen | Jazz | 13.4% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 13.0% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 12.9% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 12.5% |
| Ivica Zubac | Clippers | 12.4% |
NBA first basket picks today (November 28, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. McConnell | Pacers | 4.6% | +900 | 14.6% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 2.5% | +850 | 13.0% |
| Onyeka Okongwu | Hawks | 2.1% | +950 | 11.6% |
| Jaylen Wells | Grizzlies | 1.7% | +1000 | 10.8% |
| James Harden | Clippers | 1.6% | +850 | 12.1% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 1.3% | +800 | 12.5% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 1.3% | +650 | 14.6% |
| Ace Bailey | Jazz | 0.9% | +900 | 10.9% |
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | 0.6% | +800 | 11.7% |
| Anthony Davis | Mavericks | 0.2% | +600 | 14.5% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 0.2% | +750 | 11.9% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, November 28, 2025, Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Maxey lead our first basket projections, while T.J. McConnell shapes as the strongest value play at at +900. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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