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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, December 5, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 12/5.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, December 5, 2025—are live with the Cavaliers' Donovan Mitchell projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Mitchell, Tyrese Maxey and De'Aaron Fox lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (December 5, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 17.0% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 16.4% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 15.4% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 15.4% |
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | 14.9% |
| Austin Reaves | Lakers | 14.8% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 14.7% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 14.4% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 14.1% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 14.1% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 14.0% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 13.8% |
| Anthony Davis | Mavericks | 13.8% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 13.7% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 13.7% |
NBA first basket picks today (December 5, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 5.3% | +1000 | 14.4% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 1.5% | +700 | 14.0% |
| Ryan Rollins | Bucks | 1.1% | +750 | 12.9% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 0.9% | +700 | 13.4% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 0.8% | +650 | 14.1% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | Hawks | 0.6% | +800 | 11.7% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 12/5.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, December 5, 2025, Donovan Mitchell, Tyrese Maxey and De'Aaron Fox lead our first basket projections, while Kawhi Leonard shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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