Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of Monday's NBA slate.
Our NBA first basket predictions for October 27, 2025, are based on Monday's latest data and matchups.
Our NBA first basket predictions for Monday, October 27, 2025, are live—with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Thunder the most likely player to score the first basket based on the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.
Monday's first basket predictions come from our NBA first basket odds and player projections, which highlight not only first basket chances, but also projected points, rebounds, assists and more for every player on today's basketball slate.
Who will score the first basket tonight? [October 27, 2025]
According to our data-driven analysis, the most likely NBA player to score the first basket across today's matchups is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, with a probability of 19.1%.
Player (Team)
FB Probability
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)
19.1%
Anthony Davis (Mavericks)
16.8%
Ja Morant (Grizzlies)
16.6%
Cam Thomas (Nets)
16.3%
Julius Randle (Timberwolves)
16.1%
Devin Booker (Suns)
15.9%
Victor Wembanyama (Spurs)
15.4%
Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers)
15.3%
Jordan Poole (Pelicans)
15.2%
Jaylen Brown (Celtics)
14.3%
Following Gilgeous-Alexander closely are Anthony Davis at 16.8% and Ja Morant at 16.6%.
Cam Thomas and Julius Randle are among those in the top 10, with the full list of first basket projections for Monday available via today’s NBA player projections.
Ja Morant is among the top contenders in the NBA to score the first basket on Monday, October 27, 2025.
Best NBA first basket picks [10/27/2025]
After simulating the result of today's NBA matchups 10K times each, our independent predictive analytics model has generated the best NBA first basket bet for you to make on Monday.
Our model has identified the best NBA first basket bet for Monday's NBA slate in the game between the Thunder and Mavericks. The bet is on Anthony Davis (DAL) at odds of +600 with FanDuel Sportsbook, with an edge of 2.5% according to our analysis.
Not only does Davis present an edge according to our model, but he is also among our top three most likely first basket scorers for today, as noted in the list above.
For October 27, 2025, our NBA first basket predictions highlight big-name players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Davis and Ja Morant—all of whom are among the top projected chances to open the scoring in today’s games. But when it comes to +EV betting, it’s Anthony Davis who emerges as the top pick, showing a calculated 2.5% edge at +600 odds.
These projections are the result of 10,000 simulations, giving you a reliable foundation for smarter prop betting. Always wager with care—help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER if you or someone close to you needs support.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
