Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of Sunday's NBA slate.
Our NBA first basket predictions for November 23, 2025, are based on Sunday's latest data and matchups.
Our NBA first basket predictions for Sunday, November 23, 2025, are live—with Jaylen Brown of the Celtics the most likely player to score the first basket according to the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.
Sunday's first basket predictions come straight from our NBA first basket odds and player projections, which highlight not only first basket chances, but also projected points, rebounds, assists and more for every player on today's basketball slate.
Who will score the first basket tonight? [November 23, 2025]
According to our data-driven analysis, the most likely NBA player to score the first basket across all of today's matchups is Jaylen Brown, with a probability of 16.8%.
Player (Team)
FB Probability
Jaylen Brown (Celtics)
16.8%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)
15.8%
De'Aaron Fox (Spurs)
15.4%
Deni Avdija (Trail Blazers)
15.0%
Kon Knueppel (Hornets)
14.8%
Lauri Markkanen (Jazz)
14.4%
Miles Bridges (Hornets)
14.2%
Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers)
14.0%
Devin Booker (Suns)
13.6%
Dillon Brooks (Suns)
13.2%
Following Brown closely are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at 15.8% and De'Aaron Fox at 15.4%.
Deni Avdija and Kon Knueppel also feature, with the full list of first basket projections for Sunday available via today’s NBA player projections.
DeAaron Fox is among the top contenders in the NBA to score the first basket on Sunday, November 23, 2025.
Best NBA first basket picks [11/23/2025]
Having simulated the outcome of today's NBA slate thousands of times, our predictive model has generated the best NBA first basket betting pick for Sunday.
Our model has identified the best NBA first basket bet for Sunday's NBA slate in the game between the Clippers and Cavaliers. The bet is on Kawhi Leonard (LAC) at odds of +950 with FanDuel Sportsbook, with an edge of 3.1% according to our analysis.
Dimers' model not only showcases Leonard for him 3.1% betting edge but also ranks him among the top 10 most likely first basket scorers for today, as seen in the earlier list.
For November 23, 2025, our NBA first basket predictions feature star players including Jaylen Brown, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and De'Aaron Fox—all of whom are among the top projected chances to open the scoring in today’s games. But when it comes to betting value, it’s Kawhi Leonard who emerges as the top play, offering a calculated 3.1% edge at +950 odds.
These projections are built from 10,000 simulations, giving you a reliable base for smarter prop betting. Always wager with care—help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER if you or someone close to you needs support.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
