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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, December 4, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 12/4.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, December 4, 2025—are live with the Timberwolves' Anthony Edwards projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Edwards, Tyrese Maxey and CJ McCollum lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also feature tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (December 4, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 15.5% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 15.0% |
| CJ McCollum | Wizards | 14.9% |
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | 13.8% |
| Payton Pritchard | Celtics | 13.2% |
| Austin Reaves | Lakers | 13.1% |
| Lauri Markkanen | Jazz | 13.0% |
| Jonathan Kuminga | Warriors | 12.7% |
| Noah Clowney | Nets | 12.6% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 12.5% |
| Neemias Queta | Celtics | 12.1% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 12.0% |
| Egor Demin | Nets | 11.8% |
| Jeremiah Fears | Pelicans | 11.6% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 11.4% |
NBA first basket picks today (December 4, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 2.9% | +1100 | 11.2% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | Raptors | 2.3% | +1100 | 10.7% |
| Will Richard | Warriors | 2.0% | +1300 | 9.1% |
| Brandin Podziemski | Warriors | 1.7% | +950 | 11.2% |
| Jonathan Kuminga | Warriors | 1.6% | +800 | 12.7% |
| Moses Moody | Warriors | 0.8% | +1000 | 9.9% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 12/4.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Thursday, December 4, 2025, Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Maxey and CJ McCollum lead our first basket projections, while Scottie Barnes shapes as the strongest value play at +1100. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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