Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of Wednesday's NBA slate.
Our NBA first basket predictions for November 5, 2025, are based on Wednesday's latest data and matchups.
Our NBA first basket predictions for Wednesday, November 5, 2025, are live—with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Thunder the most likely player to score the first basket per the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.
Wednesday's first basket predictions come straight from our NBA first basket odds and player projections, which highlight not only first basket chances, but also projected points, rebounds, assists and more for every player on today's basketball slate.
Who will score the first basket tonight? [November 5, 2025]
According to our data-driven analysis, the most likely NBA player to score the first basket in any of today's matchups is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, with a probability of 17.4%.
Player (Team)
FB Probability
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)
17.4%
Jaylen Brown (Celtics)
16.4%
Victor Wembanyama (Spurs)
16.1%
Pascal Siakam (Pacers)
16.0%
Lauri Markkanen (Jazz)
15.9%
Jalen Brunson (Knicks)
15.7%
Luka Doncic (Lakers)
14.8%
Tyrese Maxey (76ers)
14.5%
Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers)
14.5%
Ja Morant (Grizzlies)
14.2%
Following Gilgeous-Alexander closely are Jaylen Brown at 16.4% and Victor Wembanyama at 16.1%.
Pascal Siakam and Lauri Markkanen are among those in the top 10, with the full list of first basket projections for Wednesday available via today’s NBA player projections.
Jaylen Brown is one of the most likely NBA players to score the first basket on Wednesday, November 5, 2025.
Best NBA first basket picks [11/5/2025]
Having simulated the result of today's NBA matchups thousands of times each, our predictive model has generated the best NBA first basket bet for you to make on Wednesday.
Our model has identified the best NBA first basket bet for Wednesday's NBA slate in the game between the 76ers and Cavaliers. The bet is on Tyrese Maxey (PHI) at odds of +700 with FanDuel Sportsbook, with an edge of 2.0% according to our analysis.
Our model not only features Maxey for him 2.0% betting edge but also ranks him among the top 10 most likely first basket scorers for today, as seen in the above list.
For November 5, 2025, our NBA first basket predictions spotlight standout players such as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaylen Brown and Victor Wembanyama—all of whom are among the top projected chances to open the scoring in today’s games. But when it comes to betting value, it’s Tyrese Maxey who emerges as the top pick, showing a calculated 2.0% edge at +700 odds.
These projections are the result of 10,000 simulations, giving you a reliable foundation for smarter prop betting. Always wager with care—help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER if you or someone close to you needs support.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
