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Patriots vs. Bills prediction: Buffalo favored to win SNF Week 5, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills predictions for NFL Sunday.
The Buffalo Bills will take on the New England Patriots in NFL Week 5 action at Highmark Stadium on Sunday, beginning at 8:20PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Bills as the most likely winner of today's game.
"Using the most recent data, our experts ran 10,000 simulations of Sunday's Patriots-Bills game," said Dimers' Chief Content Officer, Nick Slade.
"After accounting for recent updates and other variables, our prediction shows the Bills with a win probability of 75%, while the Patriots have 25%."
This gameday Patriots vs. Bills betting preview builds on my Patriots vs. Bills prediction that was posted earlier in the week.
For a closer look at today’s game, including the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Patriots vs. Bills predictions page.
Patriots vs. Bills Predictions
Since our Patriots-Bills predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Patriots and Bills 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Bills a 75% chance of defeating the Patriots in Week 5 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Bills winning 28-20.
According to our model, the Patriots (+8) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 48.5 points has a 52% chance of going over.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 5 straight up picks.
Patriots vs. Bills odds
We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Patriots | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +8 (-110) | -8 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +350 | -395 |
| Total | o48.5 (-118) | u48.5 (-104) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
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Patriots vs. Bills picks and best bets
Our model's strongest edge in today's Patriots vs. Bills matchup is on the moneyline.
Our expert predictions, aligned with the current odds, reveal the best NFL picks and NFL best bets for every game throughout the season.
Unlimited access to our full set of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.
Patriots vs. Bills TD scorers
Who will score an anytime touchdown in Patriots vs. Bills?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Buffalo's James Cook is most likely to score the first touchdown in Patriots vs. Bills.
Our projections give Cook a 14.8% chance of scoring the first TD at Highmark Stadium, while the Bills running back is a 60.5% chance of reaching the end zone at any point during the game.
First touchdown scorer predictions
New England Patriots
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson (RB) | 6.0% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) | 5.9% |
| Hunter Henry (TE) | 5.4% |
Buffalo Bills
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| James Cook (RB) | 14.8% |
| Josh Allen (QB) | 10.0% |
| Keon Coleman (WR) | 5.7% |
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
New England Patriots
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson (RB) | 28.7% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) | 28.4% |
| Hunter Henry (TE) | 26.2% |
Buffalo Bills
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| James Cook (RB) | 60.5% |
| Josh Allen (QB) | 46.6% |
| Keon Coleman (WR) | 30.2% |
Patriots vs Bills player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Patriots and Bills. For detailed projections, join Dimers Pro.
Already a Dimers Pro member? Head to our NFL player projections page now to access player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 5 games.
Patriots vs. Bills quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Patriots' Drake Maye is projected to throw for fewer yards than the Bills' Josh Allen.
Patriots rushing
Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson are projected to be the leading rushers for the Patriots.
| Player | Position |
|---|---|
| Drake Maye | QB |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB |
Bills rushing
James Cook, Josh Allen and Ray Davis are expected to lead the Bills in rushing yards.
| Player | Position |
|---|---|
| James Cook | RB |
| Josh Allen | QB |
| Ray Davis | RB |
Patriots receiving
Stefon Diggs, Hunter Henry, Kayshon Boutte, Mack Hollins and TreVeyon Henderson are projected to top the receiving yards for the Patriots.
| Player | Position |
|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | WR |
| Hunter Henry | TE |
| Kayshon Boutte | WR |
| Mack Hollins | WR |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB |
Bills receiving
Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Joshua Palmer and James Cook are projected to lead the Bills in receiving yards.
| Player | Position |
|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | WR |
| Keon Coleman | WR |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE |
| Joshua Palmer | WR |
| James Cook | RB |
Patriots vs. Bills game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 5 action between the Bills and Patriots at Highmark Stadium is scheduled to begin at 8:20PM ET.
- Who: New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
- Date: Sunday, October 5, 2025
- Time: 8:20PM ET/5:20PM PT
- Venue: Highmark Stadium
Dimers' comprehensive preview of this week's Patriots vs. Bills matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.
Before making any Patriots vs. Bills picks, be sure to check out the latest NFL predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.
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Conclusion
We predict the Bills, with a 75% win probability, will likely beat the Patriots in Week 5 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Patriots vs. Bills insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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More on NFL
Stay informed with the latest NFL news and NFL parlay picks throughout the season. Plus, our Super Bowl odds offer the latest projections for the Super Bowl, AFC, NFC and each division.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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