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Patriots vs. Bengals prediction: Why New England is favored to win in NFL Week 12, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals predictions for NFL Sunday.
The Cincinnati Bengals will face the favored New England Patriots in NFL Week 12 action at Paycor Stadium on Sunday, beginning at 1:00PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Patriots as the most likely winner of the Patriots vs. Bengals game.
This article offers a closer look at this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Patriots vs. Bengals prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Patriots-Bengals predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Patriots and Bengals 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Patriots a 72% chance of beating the Bengals in Week 12 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Patriots winning 28-21.
According to our model, the Bengals (+7.5) have a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 50.5 points has a 53% chance of staying under.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 12 straight up picks.
Patriots vs. Bengals odds
We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Patriots | Bengals |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -7.5 (-102) | +7.5 (-112) |
| Moneyline | -375 | +310 |
| Total | o50.5 (-114) | u50.5 (-102) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Patriots vs. Bengals picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bengals +7.5 | -112 |
| Moneyline | Bengals | +310 |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -102 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Bengals to win.
Patriots vs. Bengals TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Patriots vs. Bengals?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Tee Higgins is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Patriots vs. Bengals.
Our projections give Higgins a 48.4% chance of scoring a TD at Paycor Stadium, while the wide receiver is a 10.5% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
New England Patriots
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson (RB) | 44.2% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) | 42.1% |
| Stefon Diggs (WR) | 38.1% |
| Hunter Henry (TE) | 31.6% |
| Drake Maye (QB) | 27.4% |
Cincinnati Bengals
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Tee Higgins (WR) | 48.4% |
| Chase Brown (RB) | 46.1% |
| Andrei Iosivas (WR) | 26.6% |
| Noah Fant (TE) | 17.2% |
| Mitchell Tinsley (WR) | 17.1% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
New England Patriots
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson (RB) | 9.4% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) | 8.8% |
| Stefon Diggs (WR) | 7.7% |
| Hunter Henry (TE) | 6.1% |
| Drake Maye (QB) | 5.2% |
Cincinnati Bengals
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Tee Higgins (WR) | 10.5% |
| Chase Brown (RB) | 9.8% |
| Andrei Iosivas (WR) | 4.9% |
| Noah Fant (TE) | 3.0% |
| Mitchell Tinsley (WR) | 3.0% |
Patriots vs Bengals player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Patriots and Bengals. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 12 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Patriots' Drake Maye is projected for 259 passing yards. The Bengals' Joe Flacco is expected to throw for 252 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Drake Maye (NE) | 259 |
| Joe Flacco (CIN) | 252 |
Patriots rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson | 55 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 38 |
| Drake Maye | 27 |
Bengals rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 61 |
| Tahj Brooks | 9 |
| Joe Flacco | 5 |
Patriots receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 67 |
| Hunter Henry | 42 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 38 |
| Mack Hollins | 32 |
| DeMario Douglas | 27 |
Bengals receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 74 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 42 |
| Chase Brown | 34 |
| Mike Gesicki | 32 |
| Noah Fant | 27 |
Patriots vs. Bengals game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 12 matchup between the Bengals and Patriots at Paycor Stadium is scheduled to start at 1:00PM ET.
- Who: New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals
- Date: Sunday, November 23, 2025
- Time: 1:00PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Venue: Paycor Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Patriots, with a 72% win probability, will likely beat the Bengals in Week 12 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Patriots vs. Bengals insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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