May 15, 2026
WNBA player props today: Friday's best props include Brittney Griner [5/15/2026]
Read Article Liberty vs. Fire prediction: Why New York is favored to win Thursday's WNBA matchup [5/14/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get New York Liberty vs Portland Fire predictions for WNBA Thursday.
The Portland Fire will face the favored New York Liberty in WNBA action at Moda Center on Thursday, commencing at 10:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Liberty as the most likely winner of the Liberty vs. Fire game.
The Fire, with the likes of Carla Leite, Nyadiew Puoch and Bridget Carleton, will face off against the Liberty, whose lineup includes Breanna Stewart, Pauline Astier and Jonquel Jones.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Liberty vs. Fire prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's WNBA game between the Liberty and Fire, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Liberty an 80% chance of beating the Fire.
According to our model, the Fire (+11.5) have a 59% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 174.5 points has a 65% chance of staying under.
Liberty vs. Fire odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Liberty | Fire |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -11.5 (-108) | +11.5 (-106) |
| Moneyline | -625 | +475 |
| Total | o174.5 (-110) | u174.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Liberty vs. Fire picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Fire +11.5 | -106 |
| Moneyline | Fire | +475 |
| Total | Under 174.5 | -108 |
According to our best WNBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 174.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Liberty vs. Fire player props
WNBA player props are an enjoyable way to wager on the Liberty vs. Fire game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Moda Center.
Breanna Stewart is expected to lead the Liberty with 22 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists, while Carla Leite is projected to have 12 points, 2 rebounds and 3 assists for the Fire.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's WNBA first basket picks.
Liberty prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Liberty are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart | 22 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 47 |
| Pauline Astier | 17 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 36 |
| Jonquel Jones | 14 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 35 |
| Marine Johannes | 13 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 27 |
| Betnijah Laney | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
Fire prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Fire:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Leite | 12 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 23 |
| Nyadiew Puoch | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| B. Carleton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| L. Geiselsoder | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 21 |
| Emily Engstler | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 25 |
Liberty vs. Fire game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's matchup between the Fire and Liberty at Moda Center is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: New York Liberty vs. Portland Fire
- Date: Thursday, May 14, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Moda Center
Conclusion
We predict the Liberty, with an 80% win probability, will likely beat the Fire in Thursday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Continue reading with Dimers Pro
Join now to unlock this article and get full access to our predictions and betting tools. Cancel anytime.
$0 for 3 days
then $14.99/week
Already a Pro member? Log in
New here? See everything Pro includes
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
Advertiser disclosure
