May 15, 2026
WNBA player props today: Friday's best props include Marina Mabrey [5/15/2026]
Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, May 15, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 5/15.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, May 15, 2026—are live with the Raptors' Brittney Griner projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Griner, Marina Mabrey and Kelsey Mitchell lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also showcase tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (May 15, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| Brittney Griner (Sun) | 16.7% |
| Marina Mabrey (Tempo) | 14.9% |
| Kelsey Mitchell (Fever) | 14.5% |
| Chennedy Carter (Aces) | 14.4% |
| Kiki Iriafen (Mystics) | 14.0% |
| Dearica Hamby (Sparks) | 14.0% |
| A'ja Wilson (Aces) | 13.9% |
| Kahleah Copper (Mercury) | 13.3% |
| Kamilla Cardoso (Sky) | 13.0% |
| Shakira Austin (Mystics) | 12.5% |
| Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) | 12.2% |
| Skylar Diggins-Smith (Sky) | 11.7% |
| Temi Fagbenle (Tempo) | 11.3% |
| Aneesah Morrow (Sun) | 11.1% |
| Rickea Jackson (Sky) | 10.8% |
| Nneka Ogwumike (Sparks) | 10.5% |
| Caitlin Clark (Fever) | 10.4% |
| Jackie Young (Aces) | 10.1% |
| Brittney Sykes (Tempo) | 9.9% |
| Aliyah Boston (Fever) | 9.8% |
| Sonia Citron (Mystics) | 9.7% |
| Kelsey Plum (Sparks) | 9.6% |
| Saniya Rivers (Sun) | 9.6% |
| Kiki Rice (Tempo) | 9.6% |
| DeWanna Bonner (Mercury) | 8.8% |
| Rae Burrell (Sparks) | 8.5% |
| Nyara Sabally (Tempo) | 8.5% |
| Ariel Atkins (Sparks) | 8.2% |
| Natasha Mack (Mercury) | 7.9% |
| Valeriane Ayayi (Mercury) | 7.8% |
| Sophie Cunningham (Fever) | 7.7% |
| Monique Billings (Fever) | 7.6% |
| Georgia Amoore (Mystics) | 7.5% |
| Cameron Brink (Sparks) | 7.5% |
| Gabriela Jaquez (Sky) | 7.4% |
| Jacy Sheldon (Sky) | 7.2% |
| Julie Allemand (Tempo) | 7.1% |
| Kennedy Burke (Sun) | 7.0% |
| Cassandre Prosper (Mystics) | 6.4% |
| Chelsea Gray (Aces) | 6.3% |
| Aaliyah Edwards (Sun) | 5.6% |
| Jewell Loyd (Aces) | 5.3% |
WNBA first basket picks today (May 15, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacy Sheldon | Sky | 1.6% | +1700 | 7.2% |
| Sophie Cunningham | Fever | 1.5% | +1500 | 7.7% |
| Rae Burrell | Sparks | 1.3% | +1300 | 8.5% |
| Georgia Amoore | Mystics | 1.2% | +1500 | 7.5% |
| Chelsea Gray | Aces | 1.0% | +1800 | 6.3% |
| Julie Allemand | Tempo | 0.9% | +1500 | 7.1% |
| Natasha Mack | Mercury | 0.8% | +1300 | 7.9% |
| Gabriela Jaquez | Sky | 0.7% | +1400 | 7.4% |
| Kiki Iriafen | Mystics | 0.7% | +650 | 14.0% |
| Sonia Citron | Mystics | 0.6% | +1000 | 9.7% |
| Kelsey Mitchell | Fever | 0.2% | +600 | 14.5% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 5/15.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, May 15, 2026, Brittney Griner, Marina Mabrey and Kelsey Mitchell lead our first basket projections, while Jacy Sheldon shapes as the strongest value play at +1700. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media brands.
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