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Mets vs. Cubs prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [4/17/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs predictions for MLB Friday.
The Chicago Cubs and New York Mets are scheduled to meet in MLB action at Wrigley Field on Friday, starting at 2:20 PM ET.
Edward Cabrera (1-0, 1.62 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Cubs, pitting him against Kodai Senga (0-2, 7.07 ERA) for the Mets.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven MLB model predicts the Cubs as the most likely winner of the Mets vs. Cubs game.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Cubs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's MLB game between the Mets and Cubs, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Cubs a 56% chance of defeating the Mets.
According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 59% chance of covering the run line, while the 10.5-run over/under has a 52% chance of staying under.
Mets vs. Cubs odds [4/17/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mets | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-149) | -1.5 (+132) |
| Moneyline | +120 | -142 |
| Total | o10.5 (-108) | u10.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mets vs. Cubs picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Mets +1.5 | -149 |
| Moneyline | Mets | +120 |
| Total | Under 10.5 | -110 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 10.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mets vs. Cubs game-day updates and essential details
Friday's MLB action between the Cubs and Mets at Wrigley Field is scheduled to begin at 2:20 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs
- Date: Friday, April 17, 2026
- Time: 2:20 PM ET/11:20AM PT
- Venue: Wrigley Field
Conclusion
We predict the Cubs, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat the Mets in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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