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Mets vs. Cubs prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Saturday's MLB matchup [4/18/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs predictions for MLB Saturday.
The Chicago Cubs and New York Mets will meet in MLB action at Wrigley Field on Saturday, starting at 2:20 PM ET.
Jameson Taillon (0-1, 4.86 ERA) will start for the Cubs, while the Mets are going with Freddy Peralta (1-1, 3.86 ERA).
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Cubs a slight edge with a 51% win probability over the Mets.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's Mets vs. Cubs matchup, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Cubs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's MLB matchup between the Mets and Cubs, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Cubs a 51% chance of defeating the Mets.
According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 66% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 51% chance of staying under.
Mets vs. Cubs odds [4/18/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mets | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-240) | -1.5 (+174) |
| Moneyline | -102 | -113 |
| Total | o8.5 (-105) | u8.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mets vs. Cubs picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Cubs -1.5 | +174 |
| Moneyline | Cubs | -113 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | -105 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Cubs to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mets vs. Cubs game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's MLB action between the Cubs and Mets at Wrigley Field is scheduled to begin at 2:20 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs
- Date: Saturday, April 18, 2026
- Time: 2:20 PM ET/11:20AM PT
- Venue: Wrigley Field
Conclusion
We predict the Cubs, with a 51% win probability, will likely beat the Mets in Saturday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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