Jun 21, 2026
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Read Article Mets vs. Reds prediction: Why Mets are favored to win Wednesday's MLB matchup [6/17/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds predictions for MLB Wednesday.
The Cincinnati Reds will face the New York Mets, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at Great American Ball Park on Wednesday, starting at 12:40 PM ET.
Nick Lodolo (2-1, 5.21 ERA) will start on the mound for the Reds, while the Mets are going with Nolan McLean (3-4, 4.01 ERA).
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Mets a slight edge with a 54.7% win probability over the Reds.
This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's Mets vs. Reds matchup, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Reds prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's MLB matchup between the Mets and Reds, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Mets a 54.7% chance of beating the Reds.
According to our model, the Reds (+1.5) have a 57.7% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of nine runs has a 50.9% chance of going over,.
Mets vs. Reds odds [6/17/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mets | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+118) | +1.5 (-137) |
| Moneyline | -136 | +119 |
| Total | o9 (+100) | u9 (-117) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mets vs. Reds picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Reds +1.5 | -137 |
| Moneyline | Reds | +119 |
| Total | Over 9 | +100 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 9 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mets vs. Reds game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's MLB matchup between the Reds and Mets at Great American Ball Park is scheduled to commence at 12:40 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds
- Date: Wednesday, June 17, 2026
- Time: 12:40 PM ET/9:40AM PT
- Venue: Great American Ball Park
Conclusion
We predict the Mets, with a 54.7% win probability, will likely beat the Reds in Wednesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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