Mets vs. Phillies prediction: Why Mets are favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [7/19/2026]
Get New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies predictions for MLB Sunday.
The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets are scheduled to meet in MLB action at Citizens Bank Park on Sunday, starting at 1:35 PM ET.
The Phillies will have Alan Rangel (0-2, 4.19 ERA) as their starting pitcher, pitting him against Nolan McLean (6-6, 3.52 ERA) for the Mets.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Mets a slight edge with a 54.2% win probability over the Phillies.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's Mets vs. Phillies matchup, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Phillies prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Mets a 54.2% chance of beating the Phillies.
According to our model, the Phillies (+1.5) have a 57.2% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 58.1% chance of going over,.
Mets vs. Phillies odds [7/19/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mets | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+138) | +1.5 (-141) |
| Moneyline | -117 | +117 |
| Total | o8.5 (-106) | u8.5 (+105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mets vs. Phillies picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Mets -1.5 | +138 |
| Moneyline | Mets | -117 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | -106 |
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mets vs. Phillies game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's MLB action between the Phillies and Mets at Citizens Bank Park is scheduled to start at 1:35 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
- Date: Sunday, July 19, 2026
- Time: 1:35 PM ET/10:35AM PT
- Venue: Citizens Bank Park
Conclusion
We predict the Mets, with a 54.2% win probability, will likely beat the Phillies in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
