Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction: Boston favored to win Tuesday's MLB matchup [4/21/2026]

The Boston Red Sox will take on the New York Yankees, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at Fenway Park on Tuesday, beginning at 6:45 PM ET.

The Red Sox will send Connelly Early (1-0, 2.29 ERA) to the mound, pitting him against Luis Gil (0-1, 7.00 ERA) for the Yankees.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Red Sox a slight edge with a 53% win probability over the Yankees.

This article offers further insights into Tuesday's Yankees vs. Red Sox matchup, including best bets and picks.

Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's MLB matchup between the Yankees and Red Sox, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Red Sox a 53% chance of defeating the Yankees.

According to our model, the Red Sox (+1.5) have a 64% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

Yankees vs. Red Sox odds [4/21/2026]

We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Yankees vs. Red Sox picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below: