NFL Picks, Best Bets, Lines and Major Storylines for Week 7 Betting

We're officially in Week 7 of the NFL as the season, nearly a third of the way through the 2025 campaign.

The NFL season rarely goes as planned and the league evolves week-to-week - it's a collision course of countless factors and our job is to cut through the noise and bet smartly to beat the sportsbooks.

Betting on the NFL becomes second nature when you have Dimers Pro in your pocket - from our weekly Best NFL Bets and NFL Props, brand-new Player Projections Hub, Super Bowl Futures and NFL Game Predictions.

To help set you up for the upcoming week of the NFL season, we're touching on how to bet the major storylines, looking at our best value bets and which matchups offer strong plays for your Survivor and Pick 'Em contests.

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NFL Week 7 Biggest Storylines

Rashee Rice Returns - What's it mean for Xavier Worthy?

The Chiefs finally get Rashee Rice back from his six-game suspension, and that could be bad news for rookie Xavier Worthy’s outlook.

Worthy hasn’t capitalized on his limited opportunities since returning from his injury, and Rice doesn’t need a ramp-up period since he’s returning from suspension rather than injury. Projections show Rice at 59 receiving yards and a 36% touchdown probability, while Worthy dips to 47 yards and 31%.

Rice’s return should bury Tyquan Thornton and JuJu Smith-Schuster behind Hollywood Brown in the WR3 battle.

The Raiders are allowing the fourth-most yards to wideouts this season, meaning both Rice and Worthy can still be productive, but bettors will want to look for who has the best touchdown value when their probabilities are similar.

🏈 Chiefs-Raiders full game prediction

CeeDee Lamb Expected to Return, Mike Evans Limited in Practice

Two big-name receivers could return this week — CeeDee Lamb for the Cowboys and Mike Evans for the Buccaneers.

Lamb practiced in limited fashion this week, with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer sounding optimistic. He projects for 72 yards and a 36% touchdown probability if active. George Pickens’ yardage projection drops to 55 with Lamb back, though his TD equity rises to 39%, suggesting more red-zone looks. Washington’s defense is giving up 1.5 passing touchdowns per game, and with Dak Prescott throwing three-plus TDs in three straight, a shootout could be brewing.

Evans, meanwhile, is trending toward playing Monday night, but remains questionable after a limited Thursday practice and sitting out on Friday. He’s projected for 65 receiving yards and a 45% touchdown probability if healthy.

That’s great news for the Bucs, who have been forced to rely on depth options like Sterling Shepard and Tez Johnson.

Evans saw 8+ targets in each of his first three games, and without Emeka Egbuka in the mix, he could be in line for double-digit looks if cleared.

🏈 Best Bets, props and picks for Bucs-Lions on MNF

Players to Target vs. the Cowboys Defense

Several intriguing player props line up against the Cowboys this week.

Dallas has been vulnerable against the run, allowing 142 rushing yards per game — inflated by last week’s Dowdle explosion, but still a soft spot. Jacory "Bill" Croskey-Merritt  projects for 66 rushing and 13 receiving yards, and while his receiving volume is inconsistent, his explosive potential makes him a player to watch.

For wide receivers, Deebo Samuel continues to manage a heel injury and projects for 47 yards. The Cowboys have mostly been burned by field-stretchers this season, so Deebo’s short-area role may limit upside. Zach Ertz is also worth watching — he’s scored in both career games against Dallas as a Commander and should see some extra volume with Terry McLaurin out. 

Players like Luke McCaffrey or Chris Moore also make sense as long-shot ladder plays as the Cowboys have allowed 100-yard games to Wan'Dale Robinson and Luther Burden this season, both second and third-option receivers.

🏈 Cowboys-Commanders Player Prop Projections

NFL Best Bets for Week 7

Our top probability and edge are discussed weekly on the Thursday episode of the Dimers Sports Betting Podcast, which are currently on a 9-5 run on game lines this season.

Below, you will find the current top probability and best edge from our Best NFL Bets, along with our top TD prop of the weekend.

Bet: Panthers ML @ Jets (-118 on FanDuel Sportsbook)

At 59.6% probability and a 5.5% edge, the model is calling it — it’s Panthers time. This matchup comes against a Jets team in total disarray. New York remains winless, has given up the fifth-most points per game, and will now be without Garrett Wilson, their only real offensive threat. Carolina, on the other hand, rides into this one with momentum from a big win last week.

The Panthers are slim 1.5-point favorites, but Dimers' projections have them winning by a field goal.

There’s simply no reason to back the Jets right now, and the metrics align with what our eyes are seeing and this is a rare moment where the Panthers deserve your confidence.

🏈 Panthers-Jets Full Game Predictions

Vikings +2.5 vs. Eagles (-115 on FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Vikings hold a 58.2% win probability with a 4.7% edge, and this was flagged as early value earlier in the week.

The projection calls for a tight 23-21 Philadelphia win but the Eagles are coming off back-to-back upsets and have to travel, while the Vikings return from their bye well-rested and confident. Minnesota’s defense has quietly allowed just 10 touchdowns all season — tied for the third-fewest in the NFL — and that could spell trouble for a struggling Eagles offense.

Philly’s second-half woes continue to be alarming, as they’ve been outscored in fourth quarters this year. With one of the league’s best passing defenses, the Vikings can make Jalen Hurts uncomfortable and limit the big plays.

🏈 Vikings vs. Eagles full game predictions

George Kittle Anytime TD Scorer (+220 on bet365)

George Kittle is set to return and sits as one of the week’s top touchdown values, carrying a 37.2% anytime TD probability at +220 on bet365 — one of the three biggest edges on the board.

The 49ers are running thin at wide receiver, and Kittle's tight end abilities should instantly be featured if he suits up for Sunday Night Football. He scored in his only game so far this year, and despite Atlanta’s solid defense versus tight ends, Kittle’s elite talent keeps him in play.

Fair odds for Kittle’s touchdown should sit around +170, making this a strong play at current prices — and still worth taking if odds shorten slightly.

🏈 Full game preview for Falcons-49ers on SNF

Week 7 Survivor Targets and NFL Pick 'Em Plays

Finally, we'll close out with a couple looks at which teams could make strong picks for your Survivor or Pick 'em leagues.

You'll need to deploy your own season-long strategy when making survivor picks, but this should give you some insight into Week 7, and we haven't missed a Survivor pick yet!

To find these predictions for every game, every week, check out our NFL straight up picks article.

Most Likely NFL Winners Straight Up

1️⃣ Chiefs (85%) vs. Raiders

2️⃣ Broncos (77%) vs. Giants

3️⃣ Patriots (77%) @ Titans

4️⃣ Packers (71%) @ Cardinals

5️⃣ Lions (68%) vs. Bucs

Editor's pick: Keep it simple and ride with the Chiefs who should cruise to a win.

Previous picks: WK1 Cardinals ✅ | WK2 Rams ✅ | WK3 Bucs ✅ | WK4 Texans ✅ | WK5 Lions ✅ WK6 Colts +5 ✅ 

Highest Spread Probabilities (Pick 'Em)

1️⃣ Vikings +2.5 (58%) vs. Eagles

2️⃣ Browns -2 (57%) vs. Dolphins

3️⃣ Colts +2 (55%) vs. Chargers

4️⃣ Panthers -1.5 (54%) @ Jets

5️⃣ Falcons +2.5 (54%) @ 49ers

Editor's pick: Go with the Panthers, our best bet to win outright in Week 7

Previous picks: WK1 Chargers +3.5 ✅ | WK2 Bucs +2.5 ✅ | WK3 Rams +4 ✖️ | WK4 Colts +3.5 ✖️ | WK5 Raiders +7 ✖️| WK6 Falcons +5 ✅ 

Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2025-26 Season

• NFL Week 7 Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 7 matchup
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• NFL Projections: BRAND NEW Player Projections Hub
• The Dimers Sports Betting Podcast: Watch the latest episode
• Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
• Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

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