We're officially in Week 5 of the NFL as the season is flying by already.

The start of the season doesn't always go as planned and the league evolves week-to-week - it's a collision course of countless factors and our job is to cut through the noise and bet smartly to beat the sportsbooks.

Betting on the NFL becomes second nature when you have Dimers Pro in your pocket - from our weekly Best NFL Bets and NFL Props, brand-new Player Projections Hub, Super Bowl Futures and NFL Game Predictions, there's no shortage of resources available with Dimers Pro - which you can get for 20% off with promo code 20FOOTBALL - tap the offer below to learn more!

To help set you up for the upcoming week of the NFL season, we're touching on how to bet the major storylines, looking at our best value bets and which matchups offer strong plays for your Survivor and Pick 'Em contests.

NFL Week 5's Biggest Storylines

Which Giants WR will lead the pack without Malik Nabers?

After losing Malik Nabers to a torn ACL in Week 4, the Giants will need their secondary wide receivers teo step up.

Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton are both projected to clear respectable yardage totals, with Robinson at 53.2 receiving yards and a 27.4% Anytime TD probability, with Slayton at 46.3 yards and a 21.4% Anytime TD probability.

Both sit at plus money for 50+ yards, making their props intriguing in this matchup, as the Saints have been vulnerable to wide receivers, having allowed multiple players to surpass 50 yards in two separate games, with single-game totals as high as 70+, 80+, and 9+0 yards.

With a full week of preparation alongside new quarterback Jaxson Dart, the Giants may be poised to exploit that weakness, making yardage ladders worth exploring.

🏈 Full game preview for Saints vs. Giants

It's Woody Marks SZN in Houston

Welcome to the NFL, Woody Marks!

After minimal usage in his first three games—just 12 carries and three total targets—he exploded with 17 carries and four catches on five targets, producing 119 total yards and two touchdowns.

That breakout raises questions about how Houston can continue to use Nick Chubb as more than a change-of-pace option.

Projections are in favor of the rookie, with Marks at 53.5 yards and Chubb at 39.7, and leads in touchdown probability at 35.5% versus Chubb’s 26.9%.

Against a Ravens defense allowing 141.3 yards per game and seven rushing scores, Marks has major momentum in an absolute smash spot with a 7.2% probability for multiple touchdowns.

🏈 Best Bets, props and picks for Ravens vs. Texans

Who will lead the Cardinals' backfield after Trey Benson injury?

Trey Benson’s stint as RB1 was brief, ending with his move to IR.

Last week, Emari Demercado saw limited action, logging just two carries for eight yards along with two catches for 13 yards and a touchdown.

Behind him sits former Jet Michael Carter who handled just one carry all season, and another ex-Jet, Bam Knight, buried even deeper on the depth chart.

Logic suggests Demercado should take the lead role, but Dimers’ model points toward Carter as the projected leader with 50.3 rushing yards (50+ yards available at plus-money) and a 38.0% touchdown probability (highest on the team).

Compared to Demercado at 32.4 rushing yards and a 30.2% TR probability, with Bam Knight effectively a non-factor, Carter looks to be the RB1 in what is likely a timeshare.

🏈 Cardinals vs. Titans Full Game Predictions

Dillon Gabriel gets first start overseas in London

As expected, unless you are Sheduer Sanders, the Browns officially named Dillon Gabriel their starter over Sanders, a move that has been building since the draft.

With Gabriel under center, Jerry Jeudy projects for 50.3 yards and just a 20.8% TD probability, while Isaiah Bond steps in as WR2 with 34.6 receiving yards and a 16.9% TD probability after Cedric Tillman’s injury.

RB Quinshon Judkins is also projected for 79.7 rushing and 16.4 receiving yards against a defense that just gave up 99 on the ground and 35 receiving on six catches to Kenneth Gainwell last week in Dublin.

The rookie Gabriel’s debut comes overseas, raising the stakes of his first NFL start in a unique situation, though the Dimers model does find betting value on the Browns with the spread in this game.

🏈 Browns vs. Vikings in London Predictions

NFL Best Bets for Week 5

These bets come straight from the Dimers model and are discussed on our Thursday episode of the Dimers Sports Betting Podcast, which are currently on a 7-3 run on game lines this season after cashing the 49ers +8.5 on Thursday Night Football.

Bet: Browns +4.5 vs. Vikings (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Browns’ +4.5 line against the Vikings in London carries a 67.7% probability and a 14.3% edge, both our highest of the weekend, with a projected final of 20-17 in Minnesota’s favor.

This will be Dillon Gabriel’s first start, and unpredictability is the theme. The Browns are going all-in with rookies, a decision that may pay off long term but creates week-to-week variance.

Results have been mixed: a win over Green Bay, a close loss to Cincinnati, but blowouts at the hands of Detroit and Baltimore.

The Vikings slot somewhere in the middle tier, providing a potentially close battle, even in the rookie's debut.

🏈 Browns vs. Vikings in London Predictions

Raiders +7 vs. Colts (-112 on Caesars Sportsbook)

The Raiders sit at +7 against the Colts with a 59.7% probability and 6.9% edge, alongside a projected final of 27-21 in favor of Indianapolis.

Despite being a touchdown favorite, the Colts only carry a 60% moneyline probability, showing a path for the the underdog to keep it tight.

Las Vegas is fresh off Ashton Jeanty’s breakout performance and nearly beat Chicago despite Geno Smith’s trio of interceptions.

Their defense has been serviceable, ranking 13th in rushing, 23rd in passing, but top-tier in red-zone stops, holding opponents to a 38.5% TD rate.

The Colts, meanwhile, allow touchdowns on nearly 90% of red-zone trips. If Smith avoids turnovers, another Jeanty showcase is possible, leading the Raiders to a cover as one of our top picks of the week.

🏈 Full Colts-Raiders game predictions

Cam Skattebo Anytime TD Scorer (+135 bet365)

Cam Skattebo headlines the top touchdown prop of the week in the Giants’ matchup against the Saints.

In a favorable spot, Skattebo carries a 53.5% touchdown probability with a 3.5% edge at -110 odds, and he was even at plus money earlier this week.

Both Dimers’ High Value and Tuddy Threat signals support the play, highlighting his potential in this game.

The matchup is strong—New Orleans has struggled to contain running backs, allowing over 120 total yards and a touchdown per game to the position through their first four contests.

Skattebo’s role and the matchup make him a prime candidate for the end zone and at excellent value with fair odds at -130.

🏈 Full game preview for Saints vs. Giants

Week 5 Survivor Targets and NFL Pick 'Em Plays

Finally, we'll close out with a couple looks at which teams could make strong picks for your Survivor or Pick 'em leagues.

You'll need to deploy your own season-long strategy when making survivor picks, but this should give you some insight into Week 5, and we haven't missed a Survivor pick yet!

To find these predictions for every game, every week, check out our NFL straight up picks article.

Most likely ML Winners (Survivor)

1️⃣ Lions (81%) vs. Bengals

2️⃣ Cardinals (79%) vs. Titans

3️⃣ Bills (77%) vs. Patriots

4️⃣ Colts (71%) vs. Raiders

5️⃣ Eagles (68%) vs. Broncos

Editor's pick: So far the strategy is fade the Titans, but if you already used Arizona in Week 1, go with the Lions before their schedule gets tougher.

Previous picks: WK1 Cardinals ✅ | WK2 Rams ✅ | WK3 Bucs ✅ | WK4 Texans ✅

Highest Spread Probabilities (Pick 'Em)

1️⃣ Browns +4.5 (68%) vs. Vikings

2️⃣ Raiders +7 (60%) @ Colts

3️⃣ Buccaneers +3.5 (57%) @ Seahawks

4️⃣ Jaguars +3.5 (57%) @ Chiefs

5️⃣ Cowboys -1.5 (54%) @ Jets

Editor's pick: Avoid the international game and go with our second-best probability of the Raiders, one of our best bets of the weekend.

Previous picks: WK1 Chargers +3.5 ✅ | WK2 Bucs +2.5 ✅ | WK3 Rams +4 ✖️ | Colts +3.5 ✖️

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Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2025-26 Season

• NFL Week 5 Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 5 matchup
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• NFL Projections: BRAND NEW Player Projections Hub
• The Dimers Sports Betting Podcast: Watch the latest episode
• Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
• Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

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