NFL Projections: Gibbs and Bijan lead the pack in Week 16 Fantasy Football semifinals

Updated: Dec 17, 2025, 8:00 PM ET | First published: Dec 17, 2025, 7:46 PM ET

Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer

Here's our breakdown of the NFL Week 16 Top 10 fantasy football player projections and the categories they are set to dominate this weekend.

NFL Projections for Week 16 fantasy semifinals. — Bijan Robinson is projected to run wild against Arizona on Sunday.

With the fantasy football playoffs in full swing, the margin for error is razor-thin. We’ve crunched the numbers for NFL Week 16, and the models have churned out a clear hierarchy of elite plays. If you are looking for the projected slate-breakers, look no further than the running backs and the high-volume passing attacks.

Here is a breakdown of our Top 10 NFL player projections and the categories they are set to dominate this weekend.

The Running Back kings

At the very top of the mountain sits Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions’ explosive playmaker is our overall projection leader, topping the charts with 23.8 PPR Points. He is arguably the safest bet on the board, also holding a share of the highest probability to score an anytime touchdown (65.5%).

Right on his heels is Bijan Robinson, who is projected to run wild against Arizona. Robinson leads all players in raw ground production with a massive 94.5 Projected Rushing Yards. His floor is incredibly high, and he remains the focal point of the Falcons' attack.

The duel at Quarterback

In the battle of the signal-callers, Jalen Hurts edges out the competition. He leads the slate in Half-PPR (HPPR) Points with 22.8, driven by his dual-threat ability near the goal line.

Just behind him is Josh Allen, who remains a top-tier option with a balanced projection of 214 passing yards and 34 rushing yards, giving him one of the highest floors of any QB this week.

We also have to spotlight Justin Herbert. While he sits slightly lower in total fantasy points, he is the projected leader in aerial volume, topping the list with 246.9 Passing Yards. If you are betting on yardage props, Herbert is your man.

Lamar Jackson rounds out the elite QB tier, leading all quarterbacks in projected rushing production (35.8 yards).

The touchdown specialist

It is impossible to ignore Christian McCaffrey. While his yardage totals are solid, his scoring equity is unmatched. CMC leads the entire field in 1st Touchdown Probability (18.8%) and is tied with Gibbs for the highest probability to score 2+ touchdowns (28.8%). If you need a bet to start the game fast, McCaffrey is the gold standard.

The pass catchers

Puka Nacua stands alone as the projected WR1 for the week. He dominates the receiving categories, leading the field with both 7.2 Receptions and 95.0 Receiving Yards. In a week where volume is king, Nacua is projected to see the most work.

Rounding out the top 10 are De'Von Achane and Ja'Marr Chase. Achane continues to be an efficiency monster, boasting the second-highest rushing projection (87.2 yards), while Chase remains an elite ceiling play with over 87 projected receiving yards.

Week 16 NFL player projections

To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Jason Bevilacqua through our fact-checking process.

Written by

Nick Slade

Chief Content Officer

Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.

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