NFL Week 14 Picks, Bets and Storylines: Omarion Hampton poised to return, Colts-Jaguars battle for AFC South

Will Omarion Hampton return in Week 14?

Omarion Hampton’s return remains one of the major injury questions of the week, with Jim Harbaugh playing coy about the rookies return saying that he is “on track and looking good,” but the team hasn’t confirmed he’ll be activated off IR for his first action since Week 5.

Backup RB Kimani Vidal has filled in admirably as a true workhorse, logging three 100-yard games and three touchdowns, but the Dimers model projects a true split if Hampton suits up Hampton sits at a 33% TD probability and 45.1 rushing yards to Vidal’s 28% and 43.0 rushing yards.

The Eagles will be looking for a strong bounce-back spot defensively, and Hampton isn't the only injury concern with the Chargers - they are still dealing with Justin Herbert’s hand injury and his status is p in the air, though currently projected to paly per the sportsbooks.

If LAC falls behind, they may proceed cautiously with Hampton, putting Vidal's TD odds at +300 as an appealing TD play with an edge in our best NFL props.

🏈 Chargers-Eagles full game prediction

Colts-Jaguars battle for AFC South supremacy

What looked like a forgettable 1 p.m. kickoff early in the season now carries major AFC South implications.

The Dimers model currently gives the Jaguars a slight edge in the division at 40% with the Colts close behind at 35.2%, and a loss here would push Indy even further out of the race.

From a matchup standpoint, there’s minimal betting value on the spread at a 50/50 probability, but a solid 4.4% edge on the under 47.5. The bigger storyline is whether the Colts’ offense — now with Daniel Jones regressing again and battling through his broken fibula — can keep pace.

Jonathan Taylor is projected for a major bounce-back after two quiet weeks, approaching 100 rushing yards with a strong 66% TD probability. He’s been the bellcow for Indy all year, scoring in all but one win and held out of the endzone in each of their losses.

Jacksonville, meanwhile, could see a steadier outing from Travis Etienne after last week's dud, projected at 57 yards and a 42% chance to score, compared to rookie Bhayshul Tuten’s 28 yards and 34% TD probability.

🏈 Colts vs. Jaguars Player Prop Projections

NFL Best Bets for Week 14

Our top probability and edge are discussed weekly on the Thursday episode of the Dimers Sports Betting Podcast, and we're looking for a bounce back after both our picks blew early leads last week.

Below, you will find the best edges from our Best NFL Bets, along with our top TD prop of the weekend, with some extra value on that player to score as well.

Bet: Titans +4.5 vs. Browns

The model posts one of its biggest values of the week on Titans +4.5, grading the play at a 67.7% probability and a huge 13.2% edge.

Tennessee remains a bottom-tier team overall, but they’ve quietly been competitive lately, losing by just three to Houston’s elite defense and staying within a touchdown of Seattle as heavy 14.5-point dogs.

With a total of just 33.5, one of the lowest of the entire season, both offenses are projected for a long, grim afternoon — which naturally inflates the value of the underdog in a low-possession game.

Cleveland remains difficult to trust offensively. After beating the Raiders, the Shedeur Sanders–led unit managed only eight points against the 49ers, and their “elite” defense has slipped, allowing 23+ in four of the last five games outside of Myles Garrett’s record-setting sack pace.

Meanwhile, the Titans’ improving run defense could not be better timed, holding the Jags to 70 rushing yards and the Texans to 75, while Browns RB Quinshon Judkins has averaged under 3.5 YPC in three of his last four.

Add in the fact that this line is +4.5 most places but +3.5 (+100) on FanDuel, which explains the high projection, and it’s the definition of a model-driven play.

🏈 Titans-Browns Full Game Predictions

Bet: Bears +6.5 vs. Packers

This might be the best game of the weekend, with the winner claiming first place in the division heading into the final month.

Both teams enter on winning streaks — five straight for Chicago and three for Green Bay — but the Bears’ win over Philadelphia is easily more impressive of their Week 13 upsets and they draw a 57% probability to cover the +6.5 points this weekend.

Chicago smothered the Eagles’ rushing attack, limited meaningful production for everyone but A.J. Brown in garbage time, and absolutely controlled the day behind a dominant ground game from D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai.

Green Bay’s run defense is much stronger than Philly’s, so a repeat of 125+ rushing yards each isn’t likely, but the Dimers model still projects both backs for modest yardage (54 for Swift, 48 for Monangai) and a healthy TD probability at 35% for each.

On the Packers’ side, Christian Watson is quietly turning into a legitimate WR1 again, with 26 targets over his last four games, and a team-leading and season-high 60-yard projection in this game, as well as the highest TD probability of any Packers player besides Josh Jacobs.

But as far as the spread, Chicago has simply been too tough to fade during this run. They’re winning, they’re covering, and they’re controlling games at the line of scrimmage.

With division stakes on the line and both teams surging, this has the makings of a classic and some excellent Dimers model value.

🏈 Bears vs. Packers full game prediction

Bet: Bengals +5.5 vs. Bills

Cincinnati is one of just two underdogs this week showing an edge on both the spread and moneyline, projecting 54% to cover with a 4.2% edge.

The Bengals finally found a pulse with Joe Burrow’s return, snapping a brutal 1-8 stretch and completely changing their offensive ceiling and motivating the defense.

Burrow’s presence opened up the playbook and seemed to spark a defensive unit that had been one of the league’s worst, holding Baltimore in check during a much-needed statement win. With Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Joe Burrow and Chase Brown all healthy at once for the first time since Week 2, Cincinnati's stock is rising heading into Buffalo.

The Bills remain explosive but flawed, particularly on the ground defensively, which creates a perfect setup for a potential shootout.

The model projects a big game for James Cook — over the 100-yard mark again — and Dalton Kincaid would be a major factor if he returns vs. Cincinnati’s league-worst TE defense.

The Bengals should also be able to run effectively with Chase Brown, who has logged 15+ carries three straight weeks and topped 5.2 YPC in each.

With +6.5 available at close to even money at some books, there’s an argument for buying the slightly better number, but either way, this is a live underdog spot for the Bengals once again.

🏈 Bengals vs. Bills prop picks and best bets

Top Touchdown Target: Tee Higgins vs. Patriots

Commanders RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. earns our top touchdown value of the week, projecting at 53.4% to score but sitting at +150 in the market — implying just 40%.

That’s a massive gap for a player who has become Washington’s clear lead back, posting double-digit carries in three of his last four games and scoring four touchdowns since Week 7, including three in his last four. Volume, efficiency and goal-line control is the holy grail for TD props, and Rodriguez checks every box right now.

Minnesota has one of the worst red-zone defenses against running backs over the last month, allowing five rushing scores during their current four-game losing skid.

Rodriguez  gets an edge not just for one touchdown, but also for 2+ and 3+ at long odds — the kind of profile you want when building a longshot ladder or round robin.

Week 14 Survivor Targets and NFL Pick 'Em Plays

Finally, we'll close out with a couple of looks at which teams could make strong picks for your Survivor or Pick 'em leagues.

We've run into three straight upsets for a tough run, but if you're still in your league and looking for a pick, we'll continue to deliver our data-backed top probabilities for those who are still competing in their Survivor pools.

To find these predictions for every game, every week, check out our NFL straight up picks article.

Most Likely NFL Winners Straight Up

1️⃣ Buccaneers (79%) vs. Saints

2️⃣ Broncos (78%) @ Raiders

3️⃣ Rams (76%) @ Cardinals

4️⃣ Seahawks (72%) @ Falcons

5️⃣ Packers (72%) vs. Bears

Editor's pick: Both of our top probabilities are solid picks this week but we used the Bucs back in Week 3 so go with the Broncos if you need your survivor pick!

Previous picks: WK1 Cardinals ✅ | WK2 Rams ✅ | WK3 Bucs ✅ | WK4 Texans ✅ | WK5 Lions ✅ WK6 Colts ✅ | WK7 Chiefs ✅ | WK8 Falcons ✖️ | WK9 Packers ✖️ | WK10 Bills ✖️ | WK11 Ravens ✅ | WK12 Seahawks ✅ | WK13 No pick

Highest Spread Probabilities (Pick 'Em)

1️⃣ Titans +4.5 (68%) @ Browns

2️⃣ Falcons +7 (60%) vs. Seahawks

3️⃣ Chargers +2.5 (58%) vs. Eagles

4️⃣ Bears +6.5 (57%) @ Packers

5️⃣ Dolphins -2.5 (57%) @ Jets

Editor's note: We didn't run this article due to the holiday week so below is the recap from Week 12, which went 3-1-1.

Previous picks: Browns +4 ✅, Cardinals +2.5 ✖️, Bengals +6 🅿️, Cowboys +3 ✅, Falcons +2 ✅

Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2025-26 Season

• NFL Week 14 Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 14 matchup
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• NFL Projections: BRAND NEW Player Projections Hub
• The Dimers Sports Betting Podcast: Watch the latest episode
• Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
• Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

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