United States vs. Paraguay prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Group Stage]

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Friday's World Cup 2026 game between United States and Paraguay, forming part of our World Cup 2026 predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model suggests a 51.2% chance of United States winning, a 23.1% chance for Paraguay, and a 25.7% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 54.9% chance of staying under, with a 52.1% likelihood of at least one team keeping a clean sheet. In the win to nil market, United States holds a 30.7% probability to win without conceding, with Paraguay at 13.1%.

For bettors looking to cover multiple potential outcomes, the most likely double chance result is United States to win or draw at 76.9%.

Paraguay vs. United States odds

We have sourced the best World Cup 2026 odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

United States	Paraguay	Draw
-110	+320	+245

Total Goals

Over 2.5	Under 2.5
+135	-160

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

United States vs. Paraguay picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Paraguay @ +320 via BetMGM
• Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ +135 via BetMGM
• Win to Nil: Paraguay @ +475 via BetMGM
• Double Chance: United States or Paraguay @ -320 via FanDuel
• Both Teams To Score: Yes @ +105 via BetMGM

According to our World Cup 2026 best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 2.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

United States vs. Paraguay: Correct score and BTTS predictions

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-0 United States win being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
United States 1-0 Paraguay	12.9%
United States 1-1 Paraguay	12.1%
United States 2-0 Paraguay	9.9%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 47.9% chance of both United States and Paraguay finding the net and a 52.1% chance that at least one doesn’t.

United States vs. Paraguay player props: Anytime goal scorer predictions

Our World Cup 2026 player projections for Friday highlight the top candidates to score a goal in United States-Paraguay:

United States

• Folarin Balogun: 25.8% probability
• Christian Pulisic: 24.8% probability
• Malik Tillman: 18.4% probability
• Weston McKennie: 11.2% probability
• Sergino Dest: 7.8% probability

Paraguay

• Antonio Sanabria: 15.4% probability
• Miguel Almiron: 12.0% probability
• Kaku : 10.8% probability
• Mauricio : 8.6% probability
• Diego Gomez: 8.2% probability

United States vs. Paraguay game-day updates and essential details

Friday's soccer World Cup game between United States and Paraguay at SoFi Stadium is scheduled to commence at 9:00 PM ET.

• Who: United States vs. Paraguay
• Date: Friday, June 12, 2026
• Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
• Venue: SoFi Stadium

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

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Conclusion

According to our computer model, United States has a 51.2% win probability on Friday, Paraguay has a 23.1% win probability, and there is a 25.7% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.