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Parlay these Dolphins vs. Steelers player props at +310 odds for Monday Night Football
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Reviewed by Nick Slade
Week 15 draws to a close in a bitterly cold MNF battle between the Dolphins and Steelers.
Monday Night Football takes us to Pittsburgh for a cold-weather clash between the Dolphins and Steelers, and while the forecast is expected to dip below freezing, the game environment still sets up well for production on both sides of the ball.
We've put our player prop projections to the test with a Monday Night Football parlay at +310 odds over on DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users can claim a $200 bonus when they sign up.
+310 Dolphins vs. Steelers NFL Same Game Parlay Picks
After simulating tonight's game over 10,000 times, our model has identified the following projections and probabilities for the picks that make up our three-leg same game parlay in Dolphins vs. Steelers on Monday Night Football, December 15.
| Player | Prop | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins) | 190+ Pass Yards | 198 Pass Yards |
| De'Von Achane (Dolphins) | 100+ Rush + Rec Yards | 109 Rush + Rec Yards |
| Kenneth Gainwell (Steelers) | 20+ Rush Yards | 27 Rush Yards |
MORE: Dolphins vs. Steelers MNF Full Game Betting Preview
Leg 1: Tua Tagovailoa 190+ Passing Yards
Cold-weather narratives tend to follow Tua Tagovailoa everywhere, but the actual production tells a more balanced story. While Miami’s quarterback has taken criticism for his performances in low temperatures, he’s still averaged 241 passing yards per game in contests played below 41 degrees.
More importantly, this matchup sets up for volume. Miami is expected to play from behind for much of the night, which should force Tua to the air regardless of conditions. Pittsburgh’s pass defense has been far from elite this season, ranking 28th in the NFL in passing yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks.
Dimers’ model projects 198 passing yards for Tagovailoa, giving us a solid buffer above the 190-yard threshold. As long as Miami is chasing points — which is the most likely script — Tua should have ample opportunity to clear this number.
Leg 2: De’Von Achane 100+ Rushing + Receiving Yards
If there’s one player who thrives no matter the script, it’s De’Von Achane.
The explosive Dolphins playmaker has posted 100+ scrimmage yards in each of his last five games, serving as the engine of Miami’s offense whether they’re throwing or running. If the Steelers force shorter throws in the cold, Achane benefits underneath. If Miami leans on the run to keep the offense balanced, Achane benefits there too.
He’s projected for 109 total rushing and receiving yards by the Dimers model, and his versatility makes him game-script proof. No matter how this contest unfolds, Achane is likely to be heavily involved from start to finish.
MORE: The Dimers Sports Betting Podcast latest episodes
Leg 3: Kenneth Gainwell 20+ Rushing Yards
After being held in check on the ground by Baltimore last week, the Steelers are in a strong bounce-back spot rushing the football against Miami.
Kenneth Gainwell has quietly carved out a consistent role, taking meaningful reps away from Jaylen Warren. Prior to last week, Gainwell had cleared 20+ rushing yards in three straight games, and this matchup favors Pittsburgh getting back to what it does best.
The Dolphins rank 22nd in the NFL in rushing yards allowed, and Dimers projects 27 rushing yards for Gainwell in this spot. If Pittsburgh controls the pace at home — especially in cold conditions — Gainwell should see enough early-down and change-of-pace work to comfortably hit this mark.
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To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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