Parlay these Falcons vs. Buccaneers player props at +550 odds for Thursday Night Football betting

Week 15 in the NFL has arrived and like always, we kick things off with our latest Primetime Parlay built with the Dimers model for tonight's Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Thursday Night Football matchup on December 11, 2025, as we look to cash in with the Dimers data.

Just like you can do with Dimers Pro, we analyze the best NFL props, touchdown predictions and matchup data to find three legs worth betting in a same game parlay.

A Dimers Pro subscription grants you complete access to the tools mentioned above, as well as our  NFL Player Projections hub complete with boxscores and fantasy projections, NFL predictions, our brand-new Dimebot betting assistant and more.

For tonight, we're using our model's Thursday Night Football predictions to build a +550 odds Same Game Parlay over on DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users can claim up to a $200 DraftKings bonus when they sign up.

NFL parlay tonight - Falcons vs. Buccaneers

After simulating tonight's game over 10,000 times, our model has identified the following projections and probabilities for the parlay picks that make up our three-leg same game parlay in Buccaneers vs. Falcons on Thursday Night Football, December 11.

Leg 1: Bijan Robinson 70+ rushing yards

The first leg of tonight's same game parlay is on the most electric player taking the field, Falcons RB Bijan Robinson.

Robinson is a top back in the league, the best player on the Falcons and the focal point of the entire offensive gameplan with Kirk Cousins under center. He projects for 77.7 rushing yards tonight as we look for him to get 70+.

Since Michael Penix Jr. went down with an ACL injury, the Flacons have effectively double down on their running game, giving Robinson 20+ carries in three of four games, including the Week 11 game when Penix went down. He had one such game in the Falcons' previous nine games, and that's resulted in three of his five best outings this season, hitting 70+ in all four games. 

He's only gone under this mark four times this season, notably all games in which he was featured prominently in the passing game, where he's seen a little less volume lately. 

Atlanta has made it a point to keep the ball out of Kirk Cousins' hands as much as possible and he's been a very inefficient passer. Though the Bucs' passing game has slipped lately, Atlanta should stick with what's been working - feeding their elite back against a defense that allowed 139 rushing yards to the Saints last week.

Leg 2: Mike Evans 40+ receiving yards

For our final two legs, we're welcoming Bucs WR Mike Evans back into the fold for his first action since he sustained a broken collarbone in Week 7 vs. the Lions.

Evans has been activated off IR and while he's currently listed as questionable, it's highly unlikely he would have been activated if he wasn't ready, and the Bucs need him.

The Bucs' passing game has suffered without Evans, allowing teams to take fellow WR Emeka Egbuka out of the game and clamp down on Baker Mayfield. Evans should resume his typical volume of 8+ targets, hitting 50+ yards in both of his full healthy games played this season.

Atlanta's once dominant passing defense has faltered in the second half, allowing over 270 passing yards and 2 TDs per game since Week 8 and the Bucs need to open up the offense to stave off the Panthers who now share first place with them in the NFC South.

The Dimers model projects Evans for 46.4 receiving yards on Thursday night.

Leg 3: Mike Evans anytime TD Scorer

To finish it off, we're sticking with Evans to find the end zone and just maybe cash both of these legs on one big pass from Baker.

As mentioned, the Falcons defense has slipped lately, allowing 2+ TDs per game in the second half of the season, including outings of 3 TD (Sam Darnold, Bryce Young) and 4 TD (Tua Tagovailoa).

The Dimers model supports Evans scoring as the second-most likely player on the Bucs offense at 37.0%, third-highest in this game and just 1.2% behind Bucky Irving to lead the team.

We're getting perfectly fair odds at +165 on the sportsbooks for Evans to find the end zone in his long-awaited return.

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