Phillies vs. Mets prediction: Philadelphia favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [6/28/2026]
Get Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets predictions for MLB Sunday.
The New York Mets will take on the Philadelphia Phillies, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at Citi Field on Sunday, beginning at 1:40 PM ET.
Cionel Pérez (3-3, 4.99 ERA) will get the ball for the Mets, while the Phillies have opted for Jesús Luzardo (6-4, 4.00 ERA).
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Phillies a slight edge with a 51.2% win probability over the Mets.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's Phillies vs. Mets matchup, including best bets and picks.
Phillies vs. Mets prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our famous predictive model gives the Phillies a 51.2% chance of defeating the Mets.
According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 61.5% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of eight runs has a 50.2% chance of staying under,.
Phillies vs. Mets odds [6/28/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Phillies | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+115) | +1.5 (-135) |
| Moneyline | -144 | +125 |
| Total | o8 (-110) | u8 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Phillies vs. Mets picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Mets +1.5 | -135 |
| Moneyline | Mets | +125 |
| Total | Under 8 | -105 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mets to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Phillies vs. Mets game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's MLB action between the Mets and Phillies at Citi Field is scheduled to start at 1:40 PM ET.
- Who: Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
- Date: Sunday, June 28, 2026
- Time: 1:40 PM ET/10:40AM PT
- Venue: Citi Field
Conclusion
We predict the Phillies, with a 51.2% win probability, will likely beat the Mets in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
