Premier League Analysis: Using Data to Predict Soccer Scores in Week 7

When it comes to accurate Premier League predictions, there’s no substitute for data. At Dimers Pro, our data science team runs thousands of simulations across every EPL fixture, crunching player stats, team performance metrics, expected goals (xG), historical head-to-heads, and even situational factors like travel, rest, and game state probabilities. The outcome is a set of probabilities for every possible final score - and in Gameweek 7, three results stand out above the rest.

Across the weekend soccer slate, the Dimers models have flagged three correct scores as the most likely outcomes of all matches, with probabilities of 14%, 13%, and 12% respectively.

A 14% likelihood may not sound massive, but in soccer betting terms it’s extremely significant. With 30+ possible full-time scores in a given match, even the “most likely” result rarely exceeds a 15% probability. By simulating each match thousands of times, Dimers’ model identifies which scores truly stand out from the statistical noise.

Here’s why these predictions, backed by thousands of data points, matter.

Arsenal vs West Ham: 2-0

The strongest correct score projection of the round comes in the Arsenal vs. West Ham game the Emirates, where 2-0 Arsenal win is given a 14% probability.

This prediction reflects the Gunners’ defensive solidity and attacking efficiency against opponents languishing in the relegation zone. Arsenal have allowed one of the lowest expected goals against (xGA) tallies in the league, while West Ham’s attack, though dangerous on the counter, tends to struggle against possession-heavy teams. A recent 1-0 win in February aside, West Ham rarely leave North London with points, with multiple clean sheets for Arsenal in recent head-to-heads.

By layering player-level shot quality data, team attacking patterns, and West Ham’s low conversion rate away from home, the model zeroes in on 2-0 as the most probable outcome.

Everton vs Crystal Palace: 1-1

The Dimers Pro Premier League model rates the Everton vs. Crystal Palace clash as the next strongest correct score prediction, at a 13% probability.

Neither side has been prolific in attack, with only 15 goals between them this season, and both rank around mid-table for expected goals (xG). Palace’s pragmatic approach under Oliver Glasner and Everton’s improving defensive structure make for a tightly contested match.

The model’s simulations repeatedly converge on 1-1 because it balances both teams’ modest scoring averages with their defensive resilience - the perfect statistical middle ground.

Wolves vs Brighton: 1-1

Finally, the most likely Wolves vs. Brighton correct score is 1-1, carrying a 12% chance.

Brighton sit 10th after a mixed start to their season (2-2-2), while Wolves languish at the bottom of the table with just 1 point from six games and a goal difference of -9.

The 12% probability of a 1-1 draw reflects the balance in Fabian Hürzeler’s Brighton, who have blended the attacking intent inherited from recent years with a more pragmatic defensive shape. Wolves, meanwhile, remain aggressive in pressing and transition, often creating chaos but also leaving space in behind, as evidenced by the 13 goals conceded this term.

Why These Probabilities Matter

By simulating each match thousands of times, Dimers’ model identifies which scores truly stand out from the statistical noise.

This weekend, Arsenal 2-0 West Ham (14%), Everton 1-1 Crystal Palace (13%), and Wolves 1-1 Brighton (12%) are the strongest correct score predictions in Gameweek 7.

For bettors, understanding why these results rise above the rest can be the edge you need in one of soccer’s toughest markets: the correct score.