Spurs vs. Thunder prediction: Oklahoma City favored to win Saturday's NBA Cup semifinal [12/13/2025]

The Oklahoma City Thunder will take on the San Antonio Spurs in NBA Cup semifinals action at T-Mobile Arena in Vegas on Saturday, starting at 9:00PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results and today’s injury updates, Dimers' advanced NBA model projects the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Spurs vs. Thunder game.

This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Thunder lineup will feature stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, while the Spurs will be led by Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.

Spurs vs. Thunder prediction: Who will win NBA Cup semifinal?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's NBA game between the Spurs and Thunder 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Thunder a 79% chance of defeating the Spurs. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 121-111.

According to our model, the Spurs (+10.5) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 233.5 points has a 52% chance of staying under.

Spurs vs. Thunder odds

We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Spurs	Thunder
Spread	+10.5 (-105)	-10.5 (-110)
Moneyline	+380	-490
Total	o233.5 (-106)	u233.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Spurs vs. Thunder picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Spurs +10.5	-105
Moneyline	Spurs	+380
Total	Under 233.5	-110

According to our best NBA bets for Saturday, the top play to make on this game is Spurs +10.5 at the spread.

Spurs vs. Thunder player props

Betting on San Antonio vs. Oklahoma City NBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at T-Mobile Arena.

Victor Wembanyama is expected to lead the Spurs with 24 points, 10 rebounds and 4 assists, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to have 31 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists for the Thunder.

Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.

Spurs prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Spurs are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
V. Wembanyama	24	10	4	3	52
De'Aaron Fox	19	4	5	2	37
Stephon Castle	16	5	5	1	35
Devin Vassell	13	4	2	2	26
Harrison Barnes	13	4	1	3	23

Thunder prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Thunder:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
S. Gilgeous-Alexander	31	5	7	2	53
Jalen Williams	21	5	6	2	41
Chet Holmgren	17	7	2	2	35
Ajay Mitchell	10	2	3	1	20
I. Hartenstein	9	8	3	0	29

Spurs vs. Thunder game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's game between the Thunder and Spurs at T-Mobile Arena is scheduled to start at 9:00PM ET.

• Who: San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
• Date: Saturday, December 13, 2025
• Time: 9:00PM ET/6:00PM PT
• Venue: T-Mobile Arena
• Tournament details: 2025 Emirates NBA Cup

Conclusion

We predict the Thunder, with a 79% win probability, will likely beat the Spurs on Saturday, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected for a game-high 53 fantasy points.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Spurs vs. Thunder insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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