France vs. Spain prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Semi-Final]

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's World Cup 2026 game between France and Spain, forming part of our World Cup 2026 predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently suggests a 38.4% chance of France winning, a 34.3% chance for Spain, and a 27.2% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 55.4% chance of staying under, with a 50-50 chance of both teams scoring. In the win to nil market, France holds a 22.0% probability to win without conceding, with Spain at 19.5%.

For bettors looking to cover multiple possibilities, the most likely double chance result is a win for either France or Spain at 72.8%.

Note that these odds cover 90 minutes of regulation time. If you're used to NBA markets that include overtime, remember that World Cup bets exclude extra time unless the specific market says so.

Spain vs. France odds

We have sourced the best World Cup 2026 odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

France	Spain	Draw
+170	+225	+199

Total Goals

Over 2.5	Under 2.5
-102	+100

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

France vs. Spain picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Spain @ +225 via ESPN BET
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +100 via Novig
• Win to Nil: Spain @ +450 via BetMGM
• Double Chance: France or Spain @ -270 via FanDuel
• Both Teams To Score: No @ +140 via DraftKings

According to our World Cup 2026 best bets, the top play to make on this game is Spain to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

France vs. Spain: Correct score and BTTS predictions

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
France 1-1 Spain	12.9%
France 1-0 Spain	10.9%
France 0-1 Spain	10.1%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project an even 50-50 chance of the yes and no markets hitting. With that in mind, we recommend searching for the best available odds before placing a bet.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.

France vs. Spain player props: Anytime goal scorer predictions

Our World Cup 2026 player projections for Tuesday highlight the top candidates to score a goal in France-Spain:

France

• Kylian Mbappe: 33.3% probability
• Ousmane Dembele: 18.0% probability
• Michael Olise: 15.7% probability
• Bradley Barcola: 14.6% probability
• Adrien Rabiot: 7.1% probability

Spain

• Mikel Oyarzabal: 23.3% probability
• Lamine Yamal: 19.8% probability
• Dani Olmo: 13.5% probability
• Alex Baena: 11.7% probability
• Fabian Ruiz: 8.6% probability

France vs. Spain game-day updates and essential details

Tuesday's soccer World Cup game between France and Spain at AT&T Stadium is scheduled to commence at 3:00 PM ET.

• Who: France vs. Spain
• Date: Tuesday, July 14, 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
• Venue: AT&T Stadium

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

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Conclusion

According to our computer model, France has a 38.4% win probability on Tuesday, Spain has a 34.3% win probability, and there is a 27.2% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.