Jul 3, 2026
United States vs. Belgium prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Round of 16]
Read Article Portugal vs. Spain prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Round of 16]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Portugal vs Spain predictions for World Cup 2026 Monday.
Portugal will take on Spain in the round of 16 of the World Cup 2026 at AT&T Stadium on Monday, commencing at 3:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced World Cup 2026 model predicts Spain as the most likely winner of the Portugal vs. Spain game.
This article offers a closer look at Monday's match, including best bets and picks.
Portugal vs. Spain prediction: Who will win and advance to the Quarter-Finals?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Monday's World Cup 2026 matchup between Portugal and Spain, forming part of our World Cup 2026 predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model suggests a 24.5% chance of Portugal winning, a 50.9% chance for Spain, and a 24.7% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 50.2% chance of going over, with a 52.4% probability that both teams find the net. In the win to nil market, Spain holds a 28.1% probability to win without conceding, with Portugal given a 12.7% chance.
For bettors looking to cover multiple potential outcomes, the most likely double chance result is Spain to win or draw at 75.5%.
Keep in mind that soccer markets are settled at the end of 90 minutes. Unlike NBA betting where overtime counts, extra time won't factor into these odds unless explicitly noted.
Spain vs. Portugal odds
We have sourced the best World Cup 2026 odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Portugal | Spain | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +320 | -110 | +265 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -124 | +102 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Portugal vs. Spain picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Moneyline: Portugal @ +320 via FanDuel
- Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +102 via FanDuel
- Win to Nil: Portugal @ +575 via BetMGM
- Double Chance: Portugal or Spain @ -330 via FanDuel
- Both Teams To Score: No @ +124 via FanDuel
According to our World Cup 2026 best bets, the top play to make on this game is Portugal to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Portugal vs. Spain: Correct score and BTTS predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Portugal 1-1 Spain | 11.7% |
| Portugal 0-1 Spain | 11.1% |
| Portugal 1-2 Spain | 9.6% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 52.4% chance of both Portugal and Spain finding the net and a 47.6% chance that at least one doesn’t.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.
Portugal vs. Spain player props: Anytime goal scorer predictions
Our World Cup 2026 player projections for Monday highlight the top candidates to score a goal in Portugal-Spain:
Portugal
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 25.0% probability
- Rafael Leao: 13.6% probability
- Bruno Fernandes: 13.0% probability
- Pedro Neto: 9.2% probability
- Joao Neves: 6.0% probability
Spain
- Mikel Oyarzabal: 31.2% probability
- Lamine Yamal: 25.1% probability
- Dani Olmo: 17.6% probability
- Alex Baena: 16.9% probability
- Pedri : 9.2% probability
Portugal vs. Spain game-day updates and essential details
Monday's soccer World Cup action between Portugal and Spain at AT&T Stadium is scheduled to begin at 3:00 PM ET.
- Who: Portugal vs. Spain
- Date: Monday, July 6, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
- Venue: AT&T Stadium
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
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Conclusion
According to our computer model, Portugal has a 24.5% win probability on Monday, Spain has a 50.9% win probability, and there is a 24.7% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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