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Super Bowl LX first touchdown: Ranking every player's chances of reaching the endzone first
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Reviewed by Dave Garofolo
Ahead of Super Bowl LX, we've ranked every skill player by their probability of finding the end zone first at Levi's Stadium on Sunday.
The stage is set for a historic Super Bowl rematch at Levi's Stadium as the Seattle Seahawks face the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LX on Sunday, February 8, 2026. For bettors looking to cash in early, the First Touchdown Scorer market offers some of the highest potential returns.
Using exclusive data from our NFL player projections on Dimers.com—available exclusively to Dimers Pro subscribers—we have ranked every skill player by their probability of finding the end zone first.
Furthermore, since the inaugural championship game in 1967, teams that score the opening touchdown have built a solid track record, going on to win 64% of the time (38–21).
Eleven years after their iconic clash in NFL Super Bowl XLIX, a new generation of stars—led by quarterbacks Sam Darnold and Drake Maye—vies for the Lombardi Trophy on Sunday.
Who will score the first touchdown in Super Bowl LX?
Leading the pack for Super Bowl LX, the Seahawks’ elite duo of Kenneth Walker and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are the statistical frontrunners to open the scoring. Following an incredible postseason run where he tallied four touchdowns in just two games, Walker holds a dominant 14.4% probability to be the game's first scorer, operating as the primary engine of a Seattle offense that runs the ball 65% of the time in the red zone. Not far behind is Smith-Njigba, whose elite 11.4% First TD projection is backed by a monstrous 2025 campaign where he led the league in receiving yards.
On the New England side, Rhamondre Stevenson (10% chance) remains the focal point for the Patriots' ground attack, while tight ends AJ Barner (6%) and Hunter Henry (5.5%) offer intriguing value as reliable red zone safety valves for their respective quarterbacks.
| Rank | Player | Pos | 1st TD |
| 1 | Kenneth Walker (SEA) | RB | 14.4% |
| 2 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | WR | 11.4% |
| 3 | Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | RB | 10.0% |
| 4 | AJ Barner (SEA) | TE | 6.0% |
| 5 | Hunter Henry (NE) | TE | 5.5% |
1. Kenneth Walker (RB, Seattle Seahawks)
Walker is the statistical favorite to score the first touchdown of Super Bowl 60. With a massive 54.0% probability of scoring at any point, his 14.4% chance to be the first is fueled by a projected 79.5 rushing yards. Seattle’s reliance on the ground game in the red zone makes him the safest bet on the board.
2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, Seattle Seahawks)
"JSN" has evolved into Sam Darnold’s preferred target. Boasting an elite 95.8 receiving yards projection and a 11.4% First TD probability, he is the primary deep threat. If Seattle opts for an aggressive opening drive through the air, Smith-Njigba is the likely beneficiary of a long touchdown strike.
Super Bowl LX First TD Scorers - The Values
These players offer significant value, particularly the dual-threat capability of New England’s signal-caller, Drake Maye.
| Rank | Player | Pos | 1st TD |
| 6 | Drake Maye (NE) | QB | 5.1% |
| 7 | Cooper Kupp (SEA) | WR | 5.0% |
| 8 | Stefon Diggs (NE) | WR | 4.8% |
| 9 | Kayshon Boutte (NE) | WR | 4.1% |
| 10 | Rashid Shaheed (SEA) | WR | 3.9% |
6. Drake Maye (QB, New England Patriots)
Don't overlook the quarterback's legs. Maye is projected for 38.0 rushing yards alongside his 228.9 passing yards. A 5.1% chance to score the first touchdown reflects the Patriots' willingness to use his mobility in goal-to-go situations.
7. Cooper Kupp (WR, Seattle Seahawks)
While his yardage projection (38.2 YDS) is lower than his heyday, Kupp remains a red-zone technician. His 5.0% First TD probability suggests he is still a primary option when the field shrinks.
Super Bowl LX First TD Scorers - The Sleepers
| Rank | Player | Pos | 1st TD |
| 11 | TreVeyon Henderson (NE) | RB | 3.4% |
| 12 | George Holani (SEA) | RB | 3.1% |
| 13 | Mack Hollins (NE) | WR | 3.0% |
| 14 | DeMario Dougla (NE) | WR | 2.0% |
| 15 | Sam Darnold (SEA) | QB | 1.9% |
| 16 | Austin Hooper (NE) | TE | 1.6% |
| 17 | Jake Bobo (SEA) | WR | 1.4% |
| 18 | Kyle Williams (NE) | WR | 1.2% |
| 19 | Eric Saubert (SEA) | TE | 1.1% |
| 20 | Cam Akers (SEA) | RB | 0.6% |
| 21 | Dareke Young (SEA) | WR | 0.4% |
| 22 | Nick Kallerup (SEA) | TE | 0.3% |
11. TreVeyon Henderson & 12. George Holani
Both backup RBs carry roughly a 3% chance to strike first. While unlikely to start the game, a quick change-of-pace substitution near the goal line could make either a hero for bettors.
15. Sam Darnold (QB, Seattle Seahawks)
Darnold has a 1.9% First TD probability. While he is projected for nearly 225 passing yards, he only has 8.7 projected rushing yards, making a QB sneak his only realistic path to the first score.
Why trust these Super Bowl LX First Touchdown projections?
The data used in this ranking is powered by the same advanced simulations that Dimers Pro subscribers use to gain an edge every week. By analyzing thousands of game iterations, these percentages represent the most likely reality for Sunday's showdown in Santa Clara.
Expert tip: Watch the opening toss. If Seattle receives, Kenneth Walker and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are the immediate priorities. If the Patriots take the ball, look toward Rhamondre Stevenson or a Drake Maye scramble to break the ice.
Super Bowl LX betting resources [2026]
- Patriots vs. Seahawks Super Bowl LX Predictions: Our data-backed preview of Super Bowl LX
- Super Bowl LX Hub: Everything you need to know ahead of the big game.
- Super Bowl Player Projections: Projected boxscores and TD probabilities for every player
- Five facts you need to know before betting on Super Bowl LX: Get the lowdown now!
- Super Bowl Trends: Fade or follow these historical results?
- Super Bowl Halftime Show Bets and Odds: Bad Bunny takes the stage at Super Bowl LX
- King of the End Zone - Super Bowl special: Touchdown predictions for DraftKings' $4M jackpot
- The Dimers Sports Betting Podcast - Super Bowl edition: Watch every episode featuring our two weeks of Super Bowl LX coverage
- How "The Simpsons" accurately predicted modern Super Bowl betting ahead of SBLX: They've done it again!
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Dave Garofolo through our fact-checking process.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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