France vs. Sweden prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Round of 32]
Get France vs Sweden predictions for World Cup 2026 Tuesday.
France will take on Sweden in the round of 32 of the World Cup 2026 at MetLife Stadium on Tuesday, beginning at 5:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven World Cup 2026 model projects France as the most likely winner of the France vs. Sweden game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's match, including best bets and picks.
France vs. Sweden prediction: Who will win and advance to the Round of 16?
Our independent predictive model currently suggests a 76.3% chance of France winning, a 9.2% chance for Sweden, and a 14.5% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 3.5-goal over/under has a 53.7% chance of staying under, with a 52.6% probability that both teams score. In the win to nil market, France holds a 40.4% probability to win without conceding, with Sweden at 3.9%.
For bettors looking to cover multiple potential outcomes, the most likely double chance result is France to win or draw at 90.8%.
Keep in mind that soccer markets are settled at the end of 90 minutes. Unlike NBA betting where overtime counts, extra time won't factor into these odds unless explicitly noted.
Sweden vs. France odds
We have sourced the best World Cup 2026 odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| France | Sweden | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| -325 | +1000 | +500 |
Total Goals
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
|---|---|
| +110 | -130 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
France vs. Sweden picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Moneyline: Sweden @ +1000 via FanDuel
- Total Goals: Over 3.5 @ +110 via BetMGM
- Win to Nil: Sweden @ +1250 via BetMGM
- Double Chance: France or Sweden @ -700 via FanDuel
- Both Teams To Score: No @ +116 via FanDuel
According to our World Cup 2026 best bets, the top play to make on this game is Sweden to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
France vs. Sweden: Correct score and BTTS predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 2-0 France win being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| France 2-0 Sweden | 10.7% |
| France 3-0 Sweden | 9.5% |
| France 2-1 Sweden | 8.9% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 52.6% chance of both France and Sweden finding the net and a 47.4% chance that at least one doesn’t.
France vs. Sweden player props: Anytime goal scorer predictions
Our World Cup 2026 player projections for Tuesday highlight the top candidates to score a goal in France-Sweden:
France
- Kylian Mbappe: 50.6% probability
- Ousmane Dembele: 34.6% probability
- Michael Olise: 27.0% probability
- Bradley Barcola: 26.5% probability
- Adrien Rabiot: 13.2% probability
Sweden
- Viktor Gyokeres: 16.8% probability
- Alexander Isak: 13.9% probability
- Anthony Elanga: 8.9% probability
- Elliot Stroud: 6.6% probability
- Yasin Ayari: 6.3% probability
France vs. Sweden game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's soccer World Cup matchup between France and Sweden at MetLife Stadium is scheduled to begin at 5:00 PM ET.
- Who: France vs. Sweden
- Date: Tuesday, June 30, 2026
- Time: 5:00 PM ET/2:00PM PT
- Venue: MetLife Stadium
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
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Conclusion
According to our computer model, France has a 76.3% win probability on Tuesday, Sweden has a 9.2% win probability, and there is a 14.5% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
