...
...
Read Article
- More Betting
This RB1 NOT scoring a TD is where Kalshi prices and our Super Bowl data radically diverge
Updated: | First published:
Written by Pat Sharyon, Content Writer
Reviewed by Mac Douglass
In our previous deep dive of current Kalshi prices for the Seahawks vs. Patriots, we highlighted how public sentiment is heavily skewing the markets at Levi's Stadium. But while broad game lines are interesting, the real story for data-driven traders is buried in the player props—specifically, the Kalshi market for Seattle running back Kenneth Walker III NOT to score a touchdown against the Patriots.
Our latest Super Bowl simulations have uncovered a specific entry point that strongly contradicts the market sentiment. If you've ever wanted to "short" a player prop, this is your chance—and given that Kenneth Walker III has almost certainly short(en)ed your fantasy football season at one point or another, it only feels right.
Note: All calculations and prices are accurate at the time of publication and subject to change.
The Methodology: Math vs. The Narrative Tax
The "narrative tax" is a very real phenomenon in Super Bowl betting. The public loves to back big names to score, which artificially inflates the price of "Yes" contracts. By looking at the " No" side of the contract on Kalshi, we can exploit the resulting value gap.
| Metric | Value / Probability |
|---|---|
| Dimers Projected TD % (Yes) | 53.7% |
| Dimers Projected "No" % | 46.3% |
| Kalshi "No" Price | $0.39 (39% Probability) |
| Implied Market Odds (No) | +156 |
| Dimers Fair Odds (No) | +115 |
The Opportunity: By purchasing the "No" contract at $0.39, you are essentially getting +156 odds on an event our model says should be priced at +115. That is a massive +41 point odds advantage purely because the public is overbuying the "Yes" side.
Optimal Allocation: The Kelly Criterion
To quantify just how large this edge is, we applied the Kelly Criterion—the gold standard for determining stake size relative to the size of an advantage. This approach tells a compelling story:
- The Edge: 7.3% (Model 46.3% vs. Market 39%)
- The Raw Calculation: A staggering 45.95% bankroll allocation.
While a "Full Kelly" is mathematically sound, we recommend a Fractional Kelly approach (e.g., 1/4 or 1/8) to manage the variance of a high-stakes game like the Super Bowl. Even with a conservative stake, the signal here is the strongest in our entire Seahawks-Patriots projection set.
Summary of the Trade
- The Asset: Kenneth Walker III - Anytime Touchdown (NO)
- The Entry Point: $0.39 or better
- The Strategy: Profit from the over-inflation of "Yes" contracts by trading the under-bought "No."
Always trade responsibly. For real-time updates to these probabilities as the market moves, visit our NFL Bet Hub.
Must be 18 years or older and have a legal, U.S. residential address within the applicable state, D.C., or U.S. territories. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, and OH.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Mac Douglass through our fact-checking process.
Pat Sharyon is an experienced writer who specializes in NFL and college football while also covering tennis, MLB, golf and a variety of international sports. Hailing originally from Boston, Massachusetts, Pat has a degree in linguistics from the University of California at Santa Cruz.
Advertiser disclosure