Commanders vs. Chargers prediction: Chargers favored to win in NFL Week 5, 2025

NFL Week 5 action continues on Sunday at 4:25PM ET as the Washington Commanders lock horns with the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NFL model projects the Chargers as the most likely winner of today's game.

"Using the most recent data, our experts ran 10,000 simulations of Sunday's Commanders-Chargers game," said Dimers' Chief Content Officer, Nick Slade.

"After accounting for recent updates and other variables, our prediction shows the Chargers with a win probability of 60%, while the Commanders have 40%."

This gameday Commanders vs. Chargers betting preview builds on my Commanders vs. Chargers prediction that was published earlier in the week.

For a closer look at today’s game, including the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Commanders vs. Chargers predictions page.

Commanders vs. Chargers Predictions

Since our Commanders-Chargers predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Commanders and Chargers 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Chargers a 60% chance of beating the Commanders in Week 5 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Chargers winning 25-22.

According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Commanders and Chargers each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 47.5-point over/under has a 55% chance of going over.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 5 straight up picks.

Commanders vs. Chargers odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Commanders	Chargers
Spread	+3 (-110)	-3 (-102)
Moneyline	+140	-155
Total	o47.5 (-118)	u47.5 (-104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

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Commanders vs. Chargers picks and best bets

Our model's biggest edge in today's Commanders vs. Chargers matchup is on the spread.

Our expert predictions, aligned with the latest odds, reveal the best NFL picks and NFL best bets for every game throughout the season.

Unlimited access to our full set of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.

Commanders vs. Chargers TD scorers

Who will score an anytime touchdown in Commanders vs. Chargers?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Los Angeles' Omarion Hampton is most likely to score the first touchdown in Commanders vs. Chargers.

Our projections give Hampton a 13.9% chance of scoring the first TD at SoFi Stadium, while the Chargers running back is a 52.4% chance of reaching the end zone at any point in the game.

First touchdown scorer predictions

Washington Commanders

Player	First TD Probability
Deebo Samuel (WR)	8.1%
Chris Rodriguez (RB)	6.0%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB)	5.5%

Los Angeles Chargers

Player	First TD Probability
Omarion Hampton (RB)	13.9%
Quentin Johnston (WR)	8.2%
Keenan Allen (WR)	7.3%

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Washington Commanders

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Deebo Samuel (WR)	38.1%
Chris Rodriguez (RB)	29.8%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB)	27.6%

Los Angeles Chargers

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Omarion Hampton (RB)	52.4%
Quentin Johnston (WR)	35.6%
Keenan Allen (WR)	32.4%

Commanders vs Chargers player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Commanders and Chargers. For detailed projections, join Dimers Pro.

Already a Dimers Pro member? Head to our NFL player projections page now to access player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 5 games.

Commanders vs. Chargers quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Commanders' Jayden Daniels is projected to throw for fewer yards than the Chargers' Justin Herbert.

Commanders rushing

Jayden Daniels, Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Chris Rodriguez are projected to be the leading rushers for the Commanders.

Player	Position
Jayden Daniels	QB
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	RB
Chris Rodriguez	RB

Chargers rushing

Omarion Hampton, Justin Herbert and Hassan Haskins are expected to lead the Chargers in rushing yards.

Player	Position
Omarion Hampton	RB
Justin Herbert	QB
Hassan Haskins	RB

Commanders receiving

Deebo Samuel, Zach Ertz, Chris Moore, Luke McCaffrey and Jaylin Lane are projected to top the receiving yards for the Commanders.

Player	Position
Deebo Samuel	WR
Zach Ertz	TE
Chris Moore	WR
Luke McCaffrey	WR
Jaylin Lane	WR

Chargers receiving

Quentin Johnston, Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, Oronde Gadsden and Omarion Hampton are projected to lead the Chargers in receiving yards.

Player	Position
Quentin Johnston	WR
Ladd McConkey	WR
Keenan Allen	WR
Oronde Gadsden	TE
Omarion Hampton	RB

Commanders vs. Chargers game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 5 game between the Chargers and Commanders at SoFi Stadium is scheduled to commence at 4:25PM ET.

• Who: Washington Commanders vs. Los Angeles Chargers
• Date: Sunday, October 5, 2025
• Time: 4:25PM ET/1:25PM PT
• Venue: SoFi Stadium

Dimers' comprehensive preview of this week's Commanders vs. Chargers matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.

Before making any Commanders vs. Chargers picks, be sure to check out the latest NFL predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.

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Conclusion

We predict the Chargers, with a 60% win probability, will likely beat the Commanders in Week 5 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Commanders vs. Chargers insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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