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Nationals vs. Pirates prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [4/16/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates predictions for MLB Thursday.
The Pittsburgh Pirates will take on the Washington Nationals in MLB action at PNC Park on Thursday, beginning at 12:35 PM ET.
Braxton Ashcraft (1-1, 2.12 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Pirates, up against Foster Griffin (2-0, 1.76 ERA) for the Nationals.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Pirates as the most likely winner of the Nationals vs. Pirates game.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Nationals vs. Pirates prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's MLB game between the Nationals and Pirates, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Pirates a 58% chance of beating the Nationals.
According to our model, the Nationals (+1.5) have a 59% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 53% chance of going over.
Nationals vs. Pirates odds [4/16/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Nationals | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-144) | -1.5 (+130) |
| Moneyline | +139 | -160 |
| Total | o8.5 (-105) | u8.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Nationals vs. Pirates picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Nationals +1.5 | -144 |
| Moneyline | Nationals | +139 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | -105 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Nationals vs. Pirates game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's MLB matchup between the Pirates and Nationals at PNC Park is scheduled to begin at 12:35 PM ET.
- Who: Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- Date: Thursday, April 16, 2026
- Time: 12:35 PM ET/9:35AM PT
- Venue: PNC Park
Conclusion
We predict the Pirates, with a 58% win probability, will likely beat the Nationals in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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