Week 5 NFL First Touchdown Scorer Data and Round Robin Parlay Picks

Betting on first touchdown scorers in NFL games is one of the most exciting and potentially lucrative propositions in sports betting. When multiple first touchdown bets are combined into a touchdown parlay or Round Robin, these touchdown predictions can help turn a modest wager into a significant payout.

As Week 5 of the NFL season rolls into a massive Sunday slate of games, our proprietary betting model has crunched the numbers, analyzing matchups, red-zone efficiency, defensive vulnerabilities, and historical performance to identify the players with the highest probability of scoring the first touchdown.

This week's analysis of our NFL player projections hub reveals a strong lean toward powerful running backs with high-volume roles, as several key matchups point to a run-heavy approach early on.

As we do every week, we've compiled our famous first touchdown Round Robin, made up of our top five first TD props, giving you a clear, data-driven edge for the Week 5 Sunday NFL slate.

NFL First Touchdown Scorers: Week 5 (Sunday Oct 5, 2025)

The value across the board is exceptionally high in Week 5, with all five players showing odds of at least +320. We have analyzed these guys, their respective probability of scoring the first touchdown, the current odds, and the key reasons why our model has tagged them as high-value first touchdown bets.

1. Jonathan Taylor (IND)

Matchup details:

• Game: Raiders vs. Colts

• Date: Sunday, October 5, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium

The data says Colts RB Jonathan Taylor is the most likely first TD scorer in Week 5, boasting a 16% probability - the highest on our list.

The Indianapolis Colts are hosting the Las Vegas Raiders, a matchup that features Taylor against a defense that has struggled to contain powerful ground attacks. The Raiders' run defense has been a weak point, and with the Colts looking to establish their dominance early at home, Taylor is expected to receive a heavy workload, especially near the goal line.

Jonathan Taylor First TD odds: +320

2. Jahmyr Gibbs (DET)

Matchup details:

• Game: Lions vs. Bengals

• Date: Sunday, October 5, 2025
• Time: 4:25 PM ET
• Venue: Paycor Stadium

Next up is Detroit Lions' explosive back, Jahmyr Gibbs. At a 15% probability, Gibbs is an outstanding target for our first TD scorer Round Robin. The Lions' offense is one of the league's most potent, and the Cincinnati Bengals' defense has been known to give up rushing touchdowns.

Gibbs' dual-threat ability to score from anywhere on the field - either through a handoff or a quick pass - makes him a uniquely dangerous option for the first TD when the Cincinnati Bengals host the Detroit Lions. His increased usage in the red zone and big-play ability make this one particularly appealing.

Jahmyr Gibbs First TD odds: +380

3. Omarion Hampton (LAC)

Matchup details:

• Game: Commanders vs. Chargers

• Date: Sunday, October 5, 2025
• Time: 4:25 PM ET
• Venue: SoFi Stadium

Also clocking in at a 15% probability, Los Angeles Chargers' rookie sensation Omarion Hampton provides the best first TD scorer odds of all five guys, a significant payout for a player with such a high statistical likelihood.

Hampton has immediately become a goal-line centerpiece for the Los Angeles Chargers, and they face a Washington Commanders defense that has been vulnerable to explosive plays on the ground.

The high probability, combined with appealing odds, makes Hampton this week's best first touchdown scorer value pick.

Omarion Hampton First TD odds: +450

4. Derrick Henry (BAL)

Matchup details:

• Game: Texans vs. Ravens

• Date: Sunday, October 5, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: M&T Bank Stadium

Continuing the running backs on our first TD scorer list, with a 15% probability, is the King, Derrick Henry.

The Baltimore Ravens face the Houston Texans, and the Ravens' game plan is expected to heavily lean on their powerful running game to control the clock and set a physical tone. Henry is one of the most dominant short-yardage runners in the league, making him a prime candidate to punch the ball in for the opening score.

His odds reflect the high-volume, high-leverage scoring opportunities he receives.

Derrick Henry First TD odds: +370

5. Saquon Barkley (PHI)

Matchup details:

• Game: Broncos vs. Eagles

• Date: Sunday, October 5, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Lincoln Financial Field

Star Eagles running back, Saquon Barkley, closes out our first TD scorer list with a 14% probability. The Eagles' offense is a red-zone juggernaut, and while their quarterback is always a threat, Barkley has taken over a significant share of the goal-line work. The Philadelphia Eagles face a Denver Broncos team that travels to Philly, and an early focus on the running game for the undefeated Eagles should create prime opportunities for Barkley to cross the line first.

Saquon Barkley First TD odds: +390

Dimers' First Touchdown picks for Week 5 of the NFL.

First Touchdown Scorers: Week 5 Round Robin Parlay

For bettors looking to leverage this data, a first touchdown Round Robin offers a balanced approach to maximizing potential returns, with less risk than a traditional NFL parlay. By combining these five players into a Round Robin bet, you are pairing multiple players together in different combinations, allowing for a payout even if only two of the five players score first in their respective games.

Given the strong probabilities and appealing odds, a NFL first touchdown Round Robin of 2, 3, 4, and 5-leg parlay combinations using this curated list is a high-entertainment strategy for Week 5. The total potential payout for a small stake on this group is significant, making it a cornerstone of our weekly betting strategy.