Week 7 NFL First Touchdown Scorer Data and Expert Parlay Picks

Betting on first touchdown scorers in NFL games is one of the most exciting and potentially lucrative propositions in sports betting. When multiple first touchdown bets are combined into a touchdown parlay or Round Robin, these touchdown predictions can help turn a modest wager into a significant payout.

As Week 7 of the NFL season rolls into a massive Sunday slate of games, our proprietary betting model has crunched the numbers, analyzing matchups, red-zone efficiency, defensive vulnerabilities, and historical performance to identify the players with the highest probability of scoring the first touchdown.

This week's analysis of our NFL player projections hub reveals a strong lean toward powerful running backs with high-volume roles, as several key matchups point to a run-heavy approach early on.

As we do every week, we've compiled our famous first touchdown Round Robin, made up five first TD props backed by the Dimers model probabilities, giving you a clear, data-driven edge for the Week 7 Sunday NFL slate.

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NFL First Touchdown Scorers: Week 7 (Sunday Oct 19, 2025)

There's a mix of value, strong probabilities and favorable positional matchups for our first touchdown picks in Week 7, with all players showing odds of at least +500. Several players has also seen their First TD probability rise slightly since we debuted these picks on the Dimers Sports Betting Podcast.

We have analyzed these guys, their respective probability of scoring the first touchdown, the current odds, and the key reasons why our model has tagged them as high-value first touchdown bets.

1. De'Von Achane (MIA)

Matchup details:

• Game: Dolphins vs. Browns

• Date: Sunday, October 19, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Huntington Bank Field

Our top probability First TD pick in this round robin, De'von Achane gets a 14.6% First TD probability, a top five mark for NFL Sunday.

He remains a touchdown machine for Miami, finding the end zone in three straight games and piling up four red-zone scores this season. His versatility in the passing game—nearly matching Jaylen Waddle’s target count as a running back—keeps him constantly involved in this offense that lacks many other playmakers.

The Browns’ defense presents a golden opportunity, ranking dead last in red-zone efficiency with an 80% opponent conversion rate. Even if Tua struggles to sustain drives, Achane’s big-play ability makes him a constant scoring threat.

De'Von Achane First TD odds: +500

2. Davante Adams (LAR)

Matchup details:

• Game: Rams vs. Jaguars

• Date: Sunday, October 19, 2025
• Time: 9:30 AM ET
• Venue: Wembley Stadium

This game starts bright and early on Sunday morning as the Rams face the Jaguars in London.

Davante Adams leads the entire NFL in red-zone targets with 13, converting just two—but both for touchdowns, and Adams gets an 11.5% probability to score first, the highest for a WR on the whole slate.

With Puka Nacua sidelined, Adams becomes the undisputed WR1 in the Rams’ passing attack and the matchup against Jacksonville couldn’t be better: the Jaguars allow the third-most receiving yards to WRs and an average of one touchdown per game.

Davante Adams First TD odds: +550

3. Rome Odunze (CHI)

Matchup details:

• Game: Bears vs. Saints

• Date: Sunday, October 19, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Soldier Field

Rome Odunze has been a consistent scoring presence all season, with touchdowns in every game but one.

The second-year WR gets a  10.6% First TD probability from the Dimers model, the highest in this game and second-highest for a WR on Sunday.

He now faces a Saints defense that has allowed the second-most passing touchdowns and a 67% red-zone conversion rate. The Saints have also surrendered the first touchdown in every game except Week 1, making Odunze a prime candidate to strike early. With six red-zone targets converted into three scores, he projects as the most likely wide receiver to hit pay dirt first this week.

Rome Odunze First TD odds: +700

4. Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS)

Matchup details:

• Game: Buccaneers vs. 49ers

• Date: Sunday, October 19, 2025
• Time: 4:25 PM ET
• Venue: AT&T Stadium

Jacory "Bill" Croskey-Merrit’s role has expanded, and he's a force in the red zone, turning seven touches into four touchdowns, a remarkable rate for a back in a committee offense.

Croskey-Merrit gets a 9.0% probability to score the first touchdown, the highest on the Commanders and second-highest in this game.

The Commanders face a Cowboys defense that’s been leaky both through the air and on the ground, ranking among the league’s worst in passing defense and allowing scores on 63% of red-zone trips.

With limited rushing involvement from Jayden Daniels inside the 20, Croskey-Merrit should once again find himself as Washington’s go-to goal-line option against a team that struggles to stop anyone.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt First TD odds: +700

5. Rashee Rice (KC)

Matchup details:

• Game: Chiefs vs. Raiders

• Date: Sunday, October 19, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Rashee Rice makes his season debut this Sunday and enters the week as the third-most likely wideout to score first at 9.1%, benefitting from a favorable matchup against a Raiders defense that’s giving up 161.8 yards and a touchdown per game to opposing WRs.

Fully healthy after a non-injury absence, he’s positioned to thrive in an offense looking to regain rhythm as the team picks up momentum.

With the Raiders allowing opponents to score on 57% of red-zone trips—and rarely striking first against strong teams—Rice carries strong early-touchdown potential as the team should try to get him involved early.

Rashee Rice First TD odds: +700

Dimers' First Touchdown Round Robin picks for NFL Sunday.

First Touchdown Scorers: Week 7 Round Robin Parlay

For bettors looking to leverage this data, a first touchdown Round Robin offers a balanced approach to maximizing potential returns, with less risk than a traditional NFL parlay. By combining these five players into a Round Robin bet, you are pairing multiple players together in different combinations, allowing for a payout even if only two of the five players score first in their respective games.

Given the strong probabilities and appealing odds, a NFL first touchdown Round Robin of 2, 3, 4, and 5-leg parlay combinations using this curated list is a high-entertainment strategy for Week 7. The total potential payout for a small stake on this group is significant, making it a cornerstone of our weekly betting strategy.